US and Israel Postpone Joint Strikes on Iran Until After Midterms
While Washington prepares forces for potential major action, Tehran maintains its stance, and diplomatic channels remain open through intermediaries.
What happened, yesterday
- Escalation24 Oct The United States began discreetly moving some diplomats and their family members from several Middle Eastern embassies due to increased threats.
- Escalation24 Oct Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton issued a memo indicating US intelligence found Iran has "substantially increased efforts to target US personnel" abroad.
- Diplomacy23 Oct Foreign ministers from a multinational "anti-war bloc" at an Istanbul summit urged the US and Israel not to renew attacks on Iran, warning of wider conflict.
- Escalation23 Oct Iran threatened to strike undersea communications cables in the Persian Gulf if the United States and Israel resumed military operations.
- Escalation22 Oct Reports indicated Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed to have struck four tankers and that three other vessels hit mines in the Gulf.
The story
The Middle East saw a tactical shift in potential military action today, as Israel reportedly agreed to delay any immediate new strikes against Iran. Instead, Jerusalem is now preparing for possible joint operations with the United States, likely to occur after the upcoming American midterm elections. This deferral comes as US forces in the region are reportedly ready to launch major operations within 96 hours of a presidential order, signaling a coordinated approach to future escalation. Despite these preparations, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi reiterated that Tehran's positions would remain unchanged even if the conflict were to resume. Meanwhile, diplomatic backchannels remain active, with Iran confirming that messages continue to be exchanged with the US via intermediaries, suggesting an ongoing, albeit stalled, dialogue amidst the military posturing. The focus now shifts to the post-election period for any concrete actions.
Who moved today
| Actor | What changed | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Qatar | Qatari mediators reportedly visited Tehran, signaling continued efforts to facilitate dialogue. | This indicates ongoing third-party diplomatic engagement amidst escalating regional tensions. |
Three ways this might unfold
A deal is reached to de-escalate tensions and resume nuclear talks. ~15%
If the US and Iran agree to a new framework for de-escalation and nuclear talks via intermediaries,
- Pakistan-brokered talks gain significant traction, leading to direct negotiations.
- The US lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports, easing economic pressure.
- Iran agrees to reopen the Strait of Hormuz for international shipping.
- A regional ceasefire is implemented across all proxy conflicts, including in Lebanon and Yemen.
- Iranian assets frozen abroad are unfrozen, providing economic relief to Tehran.
The US and Israel launch renewed, coordinated military strikes against Iran. ~45%
If the US and Israel launch renewed, coordinated strikes against Iranian military and nuclear facilities after the US midterm elections,
- Iran retaliates by targeting US personnel and facilities across the Middle East.
- Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabian and international shipping targets intensify.
- The conflict broadens across the region, involving more proxies and direct engagements.
- The US orders further evacuation of diplomatic personnel from Middle East embassies.
- Undersea communication cables in the Persian Gulf become targets, disrupting regional internet.
The current diplomatic deadlock and military posturing persist without major escalation. ~40%
If diplomatic efforts remain stalled and no immediate, large-scale military action is initiated by either side,
- US and Israeli strike preparations continue without immediate execution, awaiting post-election timing.
- Iran maintains its defiant stance, reiterating that its positions are firm regardless of threats.
- Indirect messages and backchannel diplomacy continue between Washington and Tehran without significant breakthroughs.
- Regional tensions remain high, with isolated incidents but no broad escalation.
- US diplomatic personnel remain on heightened alert, with potential for further quiet adjustments in staffing.
Threads worth pulling
US Diplomat Relocations → Increased Regional Instability → Iran's Proxy Activity The quiet relocation of US diplomatic families from Middle East embassies suggests heightened US concern for Iranian-backed threats, which could embolden proxies to act in perceived windows of opportunity.
Delayed Israeli Strikes → US Midterm Election Influence → Post-Election Escalation Risk Israel's agreement to delay strikes until after US midterm elections indicates political considerations are guiding military timing, potentially concentrating a period of high escalation risk immediately following the US vote.
Iran's Unchanged Stance → Prolonged Diplomatic Stalemate → Sustained Economic Pressure Iran's declared resolve that its positions will not change, even with renewed war, implies a continued unwillingness to meet US demands, thus prolonging the US naval blockade and economic sanctions.
Undersea Cable Threat → Regional Internet Disruption → Economic Impact on Gulf States Iran's plans to strike undersea communication cables, if implemented, would target crucial digital infrastructure, causing significant economic disruption beyond direct military targets in Gulf nations.
US/Israel Joint Planning → Increased Demand for US Missile Defense → Strain on Israeli Defenses Israel's reliance on US support for missile defense, especially if joint operations occur, highlights a potential strain on Israeli defensive munitions if retaliatory attacks are extensive.
What others are saying
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Aaron David Miller). Miller suggests that while the US and Israel have drafted plans for renewed strikes after the US midterm elections, there is 'insufficient pain on both sides, and insufficient prospects of gain' for a fundamental shift in the conflict's trajectory.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Karim Sadjadpour). Sadjadpour notes that the Islamic Republic's campaign against Israel has inflicted more suffering on Palestinians, Arabs, and Iranians than on Israelis, with the Israeli right being the chief political beneficiary.
What we’ll be watching
- US President Trump's statements following the US midterm elections on potential military action.
- Any official announcements regarding the timing of US-Israel joint military operations against Iran.
- Iran's response to continued US diplomatic messages via intermediaries.
- Reports on further US diplomatic personnel movements from Middle East embassies.
- Developments in Houthi activity following the reported delay in Israeli strikes.
- Any shifts in rhetoric from Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi regarding the Islamabad Memorandum.
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