US and Iran Hold Indirect UN Talks Amid Stark Rhetoric and Unresolved Hormuz Blockade
Despite mediated discussions at the UN General Assembly, Washington and Tehran remain divided on core demands, with the Strait of Hormuz blockade central to negotiations.
What happened, yesterday
- Diplomacy23 Sep Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed the UN General Assembly, where he accused the US and Israel of violating international law.
- Diplomacy22 Sep US President Donald Trump, in his UN speech, threatened to "annihilate" Iran while also suggesting a deal could be reached.
- Diplomacy23 Sep US envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed that a round of "constructive and promising" discussions with Iranian officials took place through Qatari mediators.
- Escalation24 Sep Iran's Armed Forces Chief of Staff Ali Abdollahi warned of "more severe, crushing and unpredictable" strikes if the United States or Israel launched new attacks.
- Diplomacy24 Sep Iran rejected US bullying and reiterated its openness for negotiations, tying diplomatic progress to the lifting of shipping blockades and unfreezing of assets.
- Escalation24 Sep US military conducted strikes on Iranian targets, marking the first such military action in a month.
The story
The diplomatic spotlight remains firmly on New York, where the UN General Assembly has become an unlikely arena for indirect US-Iran dialogue amidst contrasting public statements. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, in his address, accused the United States and Israel of violating international law and causing civilian casualties, holding up photographs of children killed in strikes. This came after US President Donald Trump's speech, where he both threatened to "annihilate" Iran and hinted at a potential deal. Despite this charged rhetoric, US envoy Steve Witkoff confirmed that mediated discussions with Iranian officials occurred, described as "constructive and promising." Tehran has linked diplomatic progress to the lifting of US naval blockades, the unfreezing of Iranian assets, and an end to the conflict on all fronts, specifically offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days if these conditions are met. However, core disagreements persist, leaving the path to a durable settlement unresolved and the blockade of Iranian ports in place.
Who moved today
| Actor | What changed | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| Iran | President Masoud Pezeshkian addressed leaders from neighboring countries via X, stating Iran would halt attacks unless attacked first and apologizing for previous strikes. | This indicates a potential shift toward de-escalation in regional proxy conflicts, though with a clear caveat. |
| US | U.S. senators urged Secretary of State Marco Rubio to prioritize the release of journalist Reza Valizadeh, imprisoned in Iran since September 2024. | This signals ongoing pressure on Iran regarding human rights and detention of foreign nationals. |
| Israel | UN Ambassador Danny Danon called for further sanctions against Iran, emphasizing that Israel's mission against the country is not yet complete. | This reaffirms Israel's hardline stance on continuing economic pressure and military objectives. |
Three ways this might unfold
A comprehensive agreement emerges from UNGA diplomacy, resolving nuclear and regional disputes. ~20%
If both the US and Iran show flexibility on core demands, including sanctions relief and regional security guarantees.
- Direct talks between US and Iranian presidents could materialize.
- The Strait of Hormuz would see unrestricted international shipping resume.
- Iran's frozen assets would likely be unblocked.
- International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections in Iran could expand significantly.
- De-escalation across regional proxy fronts would gain momentum.
- Sanctions on Iranian oil exports would be eased, increasing global supply.
Diplomatic efforts collapse, leading to renewed military confrontation and regional expansion. ~45%
If either side perceives the other's demands as non-negotiable or initiates further military actions.
- Increased frequency and intensity of US-Iran military strikes.
- Further disruption to shipping in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz.
- Regional proxies, particularly Houthi and Hezbollah, would intensify attacks.
- Cyberattacks between Iran, US, and Israel would likely increase.
- US and Israeli military presence in the region would be significantly bolstered.
- Calls for increased international pressure and sanctions on Iran would grow.
Indirect diplomacy continues without a breakthrough, maintaining a state of contained conflict and economic pressure. ~35%
If neither side is willing to concede on fundamental issues, but both wish to avoid full-scale war.
- Shuttle diplomacy and mediated talks would persist without public agreements.
- US sanctions targeting Iranian aviation and other sectors would remain in effect.
- Sporadic military exchanges and threats would continue in the region.
- Iran would maintain its current nuclear enrichment activities.
- Regional tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, would remain high.
- Humanitarian concerns regarding detained individuals would continue to be raised.
Around the world
| Country | What changed | Deduction |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | Hosted G20 meetings in Houston and Asheville discussing the war's impact on energy markets. | Washington is actively trying to manage global economic fallout from the conflict, particularly energy prices. |
| 🇮🇳 India | Faced a direct impact on its crude import bill, which rose significantly year-on-year. | India's economy remains vulnerable to oil price volatility caused by the conflict. |
| 🇩🇪 Germany | Experienced rising inflation and increased energy prices due to the war. | European economies continue to bear the burden of higher energy costs stemming from the Middle East conflict. |
| 🇨🇳 China | Remains exposed to Strait of Hormuz transit disruptions for over a third of its crude supply, though strategic reserves offer some buffer. | Beijing faces ongoing energy security concerns related to the conflict, despite mitigation strategies. |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | Attended G20 energy talks, indicating its role as a major oil producer amidst market disruptions. | Riyadh is engaged in international efforts to stabilize energy markets, while also being a regional actor in the conflict. |
Threads worth pulling
US Sanctions → Iranian Aviation Disruption → Overland Travel Increase US aviation sanctions have severely impacted Iran's international flights, forcing travelers to seek overland routes to neighboring countries, creating new logistical and economic challenges for Iranian citizens and businesses.
Trump's Rhetoric → Hardline Backlash in Tehran → Complicated Diplomacy President Trump's "annihilate" rhetoric at the UN has fueled a backlash among hardliners in Tehran, complicating the new diplomatic opening by making concessions politically riskier for Iranian officials.
Houthi Offensive → Red Sea Threat → Brent Crude Fluctuation A major Houthi offensive earlier this month threatened Red Sea traffic, an alternative Saudi export route, causing Brent crude prices to surge before diplomatic openings brought them down slightly.
US Military Strikes → Pentagon Munition Shortages → Future Arsenal Costs Early in the war, the US fired thousands of precision-guided missiles, leading to depleted arsenals and a Pentagon report acknowledging munition shortfalls, which will require billions and years to replenish.
Iran's Civilian Casualties Claims → UN Experts' Scrutiny → Potential War Crimes Allegations Iranian President Pezeshkian presented evidence of civilian casualties, including school children, from US and Israeli strikes; separately, UN-commissioned rights experts are investigating "reasonable grounds" to believe the US committed war crimes.
What others are saying
Carnegie Endowment (Aaron David Miller). Miller suggests that as the US-led war with Iran approaches its fourth month, the relationship between the Trump administration and Israel is crucial, questioning if their tactics and strategy on Iran, Gaza, and Lebanon are aligned or at odds.
Carnegie Endowment (Helima Croft). Croft's analysis focuses on the geopolitics and economics of the Iran war, specifically its impact on global oil supply.
CSIS. CSIS analysis highlights that fresh attacks on energy infrastructure in the Middle East may compel regional leaders to establish the first post-U.S. security arrangement for the Strait of Hormuz.
What we’ll be watching
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's address to the UN General Assembly on Thursday.
- Any further statements or actions from Iran regarding its conditions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Reports on the continuing impact of US sanctions on Iranian aviation and trade.
- Updates on the status of US journalist Reza Valizadeh, following senators' calls for his release.
- Reactions from regional powers to President Pezeshkian's apology to neighboring countries for past attacks.
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