Trump Downplays Iran Conflict as 'Small Potatoes'; US Pushes UN Action on Nuclear Program
President Trump characterized the ongoing conflict as a 'military conflict,' while the US and allies seek a UN Security Council referral for Iran's nuclear non-compliance and Israel eyes regime change.
What happened, yesterday
- Diplomacy05 Sep The United States, Britain, France, and Germany are drafting a resolution for the UN nuclear watchdog's board to refer Iran to the UN Security Council over its nonproliferation obligations.
- Diplomacy05 Sep Lebanese President Joseph Aoun thanked President Trump for efforts leading to the release of five Lebanese detainees held by Israel.
- Escalation05 Sep Iran launched attacks on Kuwait, which Kuwait condemned as a flagrant violation of its sovereignty and a direct threat to its security.
- Escalation05 Sep President Trump stated that the US may order strikes on Iran's 'Pickaxe Mountain,' reportedly housing nuclear facilities, 'very soon.'
- Diplomacy05 Sep The US approved a $5 billion sale of bombs, guidance kits, and other equipment to Saudi Arabia to enhance its airborne defense capabilities.
- Escalation05 Sep Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu expressed confidence that Iran's regime could soon fall, stating it is 'weaker than ever' and 'within reach' of being overthrown.
The story
A notable divergence in rhetoric emerged this week as President Trump downplayed the conflict with Iran, referring to it as 'small potatoes' and a 'military conflict' rather than a war. This contrasts sharply with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's assessment that toppling Iran's regime is 'within reach,' emphasizing its perceived weakness. Meanwhile, diplomatic pressure on Tehran is intensifying, with the US, UK, France, and Germany preparing a resolution to refer Iran to the UN Security Council for non-compliance with its nuclear nonproliferation duties. This move, if passed, would shift responsibility to a higher authority capable of enacting further legally binding measures. Concurrently, the Trump administration is reportedly crafting a post-war strategy for the Middle East, aiming to build a regional alliance against Iran and expand the Abraham Accords, although implementation is slated for after upcoming elections. These diplomatic maneuvers unfold amidst continued regional hostilities, including Iranian attacks on Kuwait and Trump's hints at potential strikes on Iran's 'Pickaxe Mountain' nuclear site.
Who moved today
| Actor | What changed | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| US | The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressed G20 finance officials to financially isolate Iran and warned of weekly secondary sanctions against institutions maintaining ties with Tehran. | This signals a renewed focus on economic pressure, aiming to choke Iran's revenue streams and force concessions. |
| Iran | Iranian army spokesman Brig. Gen. Mohammad Akrami-Nia asserted that the US and Israel had failed to achieve their primary war objectives. | This statement serves to bolster domestic morale and project an image of resilience despite ongoing military and economic pressure. |
| Turkey | President Recep Tayyip Erdogan stated that Turkey will continue diplomatic efforts to ease tensions between the United States and Iran. | This indicates an ongoing role for Turkey as a potential mediator, seeking to de-escalate the broader regional conflict. |
Three ways this might unfold
A broad diplomatic settlement takes shape, leading to a de-escalation of regional tensions. ~25%
If the US post-war strategy gains regional buy-in and Iran engages meaningfully with UN nuclear demands,
- The proposed regional alliance and expansion of the Abraham Accords could create a new security architecture.
- Iran might eventually agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, easing global shipping disruptions.
- The UN Security Council referral could lead to a framework for nuclear transparency and verification.
- Reduced regional hostilities would likely see a decrease in cross-border strikes and proxy conflicts.
- International diplomatic efforts, such as those by Turkey, could gain traction.
- US gas prices and diesel costs might stabilize as energy flows improve.
Escalation intensifies with direct military actions and heightened regional confrontation. ~45%
If Iran retaliates strongly to the UN Security Council referral or if the US acts on threats against nuclear sites,
- Direct strikes on Iran's 'Pickaxe Mountain' could provoke significant Iranian military responses.
- Iran could further disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, increasing global energy price volatility.
- More widespread Iranian attacks on US bases or regional allies, like Kuwait, Jordan, and Bahrain, are probable.
- Israel might increase its military operations in Lebanon and Gaza, citing self-defense.
- The US could deploy additional military assets to the region to counter Iranian actions.
- G20 efforts for financial isolation would likely be intensified, leading to further sanctions.
- Rhetoric from both sides would become more confrontational, reducing diplomatic off-ramps.
The current state of 'military conflict' persists, marked by economic pressure and localized exchanges. ~30%
If neither side makes a decisive move towards de-escalation or full-scale war, maintaining the existing stalemate,
- The US will continue its 'Operation Economic Outcast' initiative to strangle Iran's economy through sanctions.
- Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will remain below pre-war levels, impacting global trade.
- Iran will seek alternative methods to bypass sanctions and maintain its economy.
- Localized attacks and counter-attacks between Iran-backed groups and US/Israeli forces will continue.
- The US investigation into the alleged wedding party strike will likely proceed without a clear, immediate resolution.
- G20 nations will remain divided on the extent of economic pressure on Iran, impacting collective action.
- Diplomatic efforts will continue in the background but without significant breakthroughs on core issues like the nuclear program.
Around the world
| Country | What changed | Deduction |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | Hosted G20 finance ministers and pushed for Iran's financial isolation, threatening new sanctions. | This signals Washington's intent to maintain and increase economic pressure on Tehran, using multilateral forums to rally support. |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | Received approval for a $5 billion sale of US bombs and other military equipment. | This strengthens Saudi Arabia's defense capabilities against regional threats and enhances interoperability with US forces. |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | President Erdogan affirmed Turkey's commitment to diplomatic efforts to ease US-Iran tensions. | Turkey continues to position itself as a potential mediator, seeking de-escalation in the wider conflict. |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | Was not invited to the G20 finance ministers meeting hosted by the US. | This highlights ongoing political tensions and divisions within the G20, potentially hindering unified economic responses. |
Threads worth pulling
US 'Pickaxe Mountain' threat → Iranian nuclear program → UN Security Council referral President Trump's threat to strike Iran's 'Pickaxe Mountain' nuclear site directly links to international concerns about Iran's nuclear program, which is the basis for the US-led push for a UN Security Council referral.
US arms sale to Saudi Arabia → Regional military balance → Abraham Accords expansion The approval of US bomb sales to Saudi Arabia enhances its military posture, which could be a factor in the Trump administration's broader post-war strategy to expand the Abraham Accords and build a regional alliance against Iran.
US Vice President Vance's skepticism on wedding party strike → Iranian claims of war crimes → International investigation credibility VP Vance's skepticism regarding Iranian allegations of a US strike hitting a wedding party, despite a CENTCOM investigation, could further erode trust in official reports and complicate any international probes.
Expiration of Strait of Hormuz talks deadline → Continued shipping disruptions → Global diesel prices The failure to reach an agreement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as the 60-day talks window expired, directly contributes to sustained shipping disruptions and record-high US diesel prices.
What others are saying
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Karim Sadjadpour). Tehran may respond to new US sanctions, as the conflict has moved to a phase where the US has discovered the limits of military action, making economic pressure a primary tool.
The Soufan Center. The war, initiated by the US-Israel military campaign against Iran, has expanded beyond the Islamic Republic, engulfing many regional countries and prompting the center to provide ongoing intelligence assessments.
What we’ll be watching
- IAEA Board of Governors meeting on Iran's nuclear non-compliance next week.
- Iran's official reaction to the proposed UN Security Council referral.
- Any further statements or actions from President Trump regarding 'Pickaxe Mountain.'
- Updates on the US military's investigation into the alleged wedding party strike in Kuhestak.
- Statements from G20 finance ministers following their meeting in Asheville, NC.
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