US Renews Strikes on Iran After Trump's Warnings; Diplomacy Continues Amid Escalation
The US has resumed strikes on Iranian targets following President Trump's threats, while diplomatic efforts persist and discussions between Trump and Netanyahu explore options for the conflict.
What happened, yesterday
- Escalation30 Jul The United States carried out new strikes on Iranian targets, hours after President Trump vowed to hit the country 'very hard' in response to recent attacks on US forces.
- Escalation30 Jul Jordan's military reported intercepting a new barrage of Iranian missiles, following a previous day's thwarted 'surprise attack' on American forces.
- Diplomacy30 Jul US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met to discuss all possible paths to curb Iran's nuclear program, including diplomacy, economic pressure, and force.
- Escalation29 Jul US and Saudi Arabian military forces conducted joint strikes targeting Iran-aligned groups in Iraq, in retaliation for over 30 drone attacks attributed to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.
- Escalation29 Jul The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF), an Iraqi paramilitary group backed by Iran, confirmed at least 20 fighters were killed and 32 wounded in US-Saudi strikes across multiple headquarters.
- Diplomacy28 Jul Iran's foreign minister discussed the security of the Strait of Hormuz in separate phone calls with his Saudi and Omani counterparts, emphasizing the need for strengthened cooperation.
- De-esc27 Jul Mediators reported progress in diplomatic efforts to bring the US and Iran back to negotiations, following a three-day pause in US-Iran attacks.
The story
The Middle East saw a renewed surge in hostilities as the United States launched fresh strikes on Iranian targets, following President Trump's stern warnings of hitting Iran 'very hard.' These actions came after Iran's Revolutionary Guard reportedly targeted US forces with ballistic missiles, which were successfully intercepted. Jordan also reported thwarting an Iranian missile attack. Adding to the complexity, Saudi Arabia joined the US in striking Iran-aligned groups in Iraq, resulting in casualties among Iraqi paramilitary forces. Amidst this escalation, diplomatic channels remain active, with President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meeting to explore all options, including force and continued economic pressure, to address Iran's nuclear program. Iran, however, has condemned the US strikes, stating they have 'rendered futile' recent diplomatic efforts. The ongoing situation underscores the difficulty of winding down the conflict, with both military actions and behind-the-scenes negotiations continuing simultaneously.
Who moved today
| Actor | What changed | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| US | The US carried out new strikes on Iranian cities and Qeshm Island, hours after President Trump threatened to hit Iran 'very hard'. | This marks a clear escalation after a period of paused strikes, raising the risk of further retaliation from Iran. |
| Iran | Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched multiple ballistic missiles at US forces, which were intercepted, and Iranian state media reported explosions on Qeshm Island and in Khuzestan province due to US strikes. | These actions demonstrate Iran's continued willingness to target US interests while also facing direct military pressure from the US. |
| Jordan | Jordan's military announced it intercepted a new barrage of Iranian missiles. | This indicates a continued regional spread of Iranian missile activity and Jordan's active role in defending its airspace against such threats. |
| Saudi Arabia | Saudi Arabian military forces conducted joint strikes with the US targeting Iran-aligned groups in Iraq. | Riyadh's public involvement further broadens the coalition directly engaging Iranian proxies, adding another dimension to the regional conflict. |
| Israel | Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with President Trump to discuss options for curbing Iran's nuclear program, including force and diplomacy, stating Trump is in 'full control' of the war. | This meeting reaffirms Israel's close coordination with the US on Iran policy while highlighting the US as the primary actor in direct military engagements. |
Three ways this might unfold
A deal is reached to de-escalate the conflict and address core issues. ~20%
If diplomatic efforts, particularly those concerning the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program, yield a breakthrough and are formally accepted by all parties.
- The Strait of Hormuz would fully reopen, easing global energy supply concerns.
- Sanctions on Iran would likely be eased, potentially releasing frozen funds.
- Regional proxy conflicts could see a significant reduction in intensity.
- International shipping lanes would return to normal operations, reducing insurance premiums.
- The focus would shift to verification mechanisms for Iran's nuclear activities.
- There would be a reduction in military posturing and troop movements in the region.
The conflict escalates significantly with broader regional involvement and increased military actions. ~45%
If recent US strikes or Iranian retaliations lead to a cycle of increasingly severe attacks, drawing in more regional actors or directly targeting critical infrastructure.
- Iran could launch more direct attacks on US bases or regional allies, potentially including Israel.
- The Strait of Hormuz closure would become more entrenched, causing severe global energy disruptions.
- Further US and allied military responses, potentially involving Israel directly, would be expected.
- Oil prices would surge significantly due to heightened supply fears and disruptions.
- Regional economies, particularly those dependent on energy exports or imports, would face severe instability.
- Diplomatic efforts would likely collapse, replaced by a focus on military objectives.
- Cyberattacks targeting critical infrastructure in the region could intensify.
The conflict remains a low-intensity, tit-for-tat exchange with intermittent strikes and ongoing, but stalled, diplomacy. ~35%
If neither side achieves a decisive military advantage, and diplomatic efforts continue without a major breakthrough, leading to a prolonged stalemate.
- Intermittent US and Iranian strikes would continue, but without triggering all-out war.
- The Strait of Hormuz would remain partially disrupted, causing fluctuating energy prices.
- Diplomatic talks would proceed slowly, focusing on interim agreements rather than a full resolution.
- Regional proxy groups would maintain their activity, contributing to localized instability.
- Economic pressures on Iran would persist, but without leading to a collapse.
- International calls for de-escalation would increase, but with limited immediate effect.
- Military readiness levels for all involved actors would remain high.
Around the world
| Country | What changed | Deduction |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | Resumed airstrikes on Iranian targets and engaged in high-level diplomatic talks with Israel on Iran policy. | The US is actively balancing military pressure with diplomatic engagement, signaling a complex strategy to manage the conflict. |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | Joined the US in conducting strikes against Iran-aligned groups in Iraq. | Riyadh's public participation in military actions alongside the US indicates a hardening stance against Iranian influence and a deepening of regional security partnerships. |
Threads worth pulling
US-Saudi Civil Nuclear Agreement → Regional Nuclear Proliferation Concerns → Increased Strategic Competition The recently signed US-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement, which may allow Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium, raises concerns about accelerating a nuclear arms race in the volatile Middle East, intensifying strategic competition among regional powers.
Strait of Hormuz Closure → Global Energy Crisis → Increased Clean Energy Investments The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused significant disruptions to global oil and LNG supplies, leading to price spikes and shortages. This crisis is prompting many nations, particularly in Asia, to accelerate investments in clean energy solutions to reduce fossil fuel dependence.
Renewed US Strikes → Iran Condemns Diplomacy as 'Futile' → Stalled Peace Talks Iran's foreign ministry stated that the latest US strikes have 'rendered futile' diplomatic efforts. This condemnation suggests that military actions directly undermine the fragile peace process, making a broader agreement more difficult to achieve.
Trump-Netanyahu Meeting → Discussion of 'All Options' Including Force → Heightened Regional Uncertainty The meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu, where 'all possible paths' including military force were discussed, creates heightened uncertainty for regional actors regarding the potential for expanded military action against Iran.
What others are saying
Carnegie Endowment (Alia Sajjadian, Andrew Leber). The harms caused by the ongoing war strengthen the case for establishing ethical limits on the weaponization of critical infrastructure in the region.
Carnegie Endowment (Aaron David Miller). There is a need for ongoing conversation about the current state of the Iran war and its potential future, suggesting the conflict's trajectory remains uncertain.
The Soufan Center. The June US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) failed to reconcile or satisfy the rival strategic objectives of the involved parties, indicating persistent underlying tensions despite any temporary de-escalation.
What we’ll be watching
- Iran's official response to the latest US strikes.
- Any further US military actions or statements from President Trump.
- Developments in talks regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
- Statements from Saudi Arabia or Iraq following the joint US-Saudi strikes.
- Any new intelligence on Iran's nuclear program following the Trump-Netanyahu discussions.
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