US Resumes Heavy Strikes on Iran as Conflict Expands to Egypt and Jordan
US forces launched heavy airstrikes against Iran, expanding the conflict to Egypt and Jordan, while mediators continue efforts for a breakthrough on the Strait of Hormuz.
What happened, yesterday
- Escalation29 Jul The US and Saudi militaries announced airstrikes late Tuesday on Iranian-backed groups in Iraq, following alleged Iranian targeting of American forces.
- Escalation29 Jul Iran claimed US strikes killed three of its soldiers on Thursday, further escalating tensions.
- Escalation29 Jul Jordan reported intercepting Iranian missiles for a second consecutive day, indicating the conflict's regional spread.
- Escalation28 Jul Drone strikes hit gas vessels at an Egyptian port on the Mediterranean, in what appears to be the first time Egypt has been targeted in the conflict.
- Diplomacy28 Jul Vice President JD Vance and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a "cordial and productive conversation" on Wednesday.
- Diplomacy27 Jul Mediators from Pakistan, Egypt, and Qatar have made progress in discussions aimed at clarifying disagreements regarding operations of the Strait of Hormuz.
The story
The US has resumed heavy airstrikes against Iran after a brief lull, escalating the conflict that now appears to be expanding across the region. Iran claimed that US strikes killed three of its soldiers today, while Jordan reported intercepting Iranian missiles for a second consecutive day. Further underscoring the widening scope, drone strikes hit gas vessels at an Egyptian port on the Mediterranean, an attack whose origin remains unknown but suggests a dangerous geographical extension of hostilities. Amidst the military actions, diplomatic channels remain active, albeit with mixed signals. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Vice President JD Vance, discussing the conflict and Israel's intelligence on Tehran's nuclear activities. However, President Trump's stance, suggesting Iran needs to feel more "pain" to negotiate, has been noted by analysts as potentially hardening Iran's position rather than fostering a deal. Mediators continue efforts to bridge gaps regarding the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway whose stability is central to de-escalation.
Who moved today
| Actor | What changed | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| US | Resumed heavy airstrikes against Iran and its proxies after a brief pause. | This escalated military engagement and targeted Iranian assets, increasing regional tensions. |
| Iran | Claimed US strikes killed three of its soldiers and continued missile activity, with Jordan intercepting missiles. | This signifies ongoing military response and contributes to regional destabilization. |
| Jordan | Intercepted Iranian missiles for the second consecutive day. | Jordan is directly impacted by missile strikes, highlighting the conflict's regional spread. |
| Egypt | Experienced drone strikes on two natural gas vessels at its Mediterranean port of Damietta. | This marks a potential expansion of the conflict to new geographical areas. |
| Israel | Prime Minister Netanyahu met with Vice President Vance in Washington. | This represents ongoing high-level diplomatic engagement with the US regarding the conflict. |
| Saudi Arabia | Joined the US in airstrikes on Iranian-backed groups in Iraq. | This indicates active military alignment with the US against Iranian proxies, increasing regional involvement. |
Three ways this might unfold
A diplomatic breakthrough leads to a de-escalation agreement. ~25%
If mediators successfully bridge the gaps on Strait of Hormuz operations and broader US-Iran talks commence quickly.
- Military strikes by all parties would likely cease, reducing immediate casualties.
- Discussions would focus on Iran's nuclear program and regional proxy activities.
- Sanctions relief on Iran could be considered, potentially easing economic pressure.
- Regional states might engage in dialogue to establish new security frameworks.
- The risk of direct confrontation between major powers would significantly decrease.
- International shipping through the Strait of Hormuz would stabilize.
The conflict escalates with further military actions and regional expansion. ~50%
If current military strikes continue and expand, drawing more regional actors into direct confrontation.
- Increased military casualties for all involved parties are highly probable.
- Further attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping lanes could occur.
- More countries in the Middle East could become direct targets or launch retaliatory strikes.
- The potential for a wider regional war with unpredictable consequences increases.
- Humanitarian crises in affected areas would worsen significantly.
- International diplomatic efforts would likely intensify but face greater obstacles.
A prolonged status quo of intermittent strikes and stalled diplomacy persists. ~25%
If neither side achieves a decisive military advantage and diplomatic efforts fail to secure a lasting agreement.
- Localized clashes and proxy engagements would continue without major breakthroughs.
- Mediation attempts would proceed slowly, yielding incremental progress at best.
- Regional tensions would remain high, maintaining a state of alert across the Middle East.
- Economic impacts would linger due to sustained uncertainty and limited trade disruptions.
- The risk of accidental escalation would remain a constant concern.
- No significant changes in the nuclear program or sanctions regime would be observed.
Around the world
| Country | What changed | Deduction |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 US | Resumed heavy airstrikes against Iran and its proxies. | This signifies a renewed military posture after a brief pause, intensifying pressure on Iran. |
| 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia | Participated in joint airstrikes with the US in Iraq. | This indicates active military alignment with the US against Iranian-backed groups, increasing regional involvement. |
Threads worth pulling
US Strikes in Iraq → Regional Proxy Retaliation → Egyptian Port Attack US and Saudi airstrikes on Iranian-backed groups in Iraq could provoke wider retaliation, potentially linking to the drone strikes on Egypt's gas port, whose origin is unknown but Houthi allies have targeted ships in the Red Sea.
Trump-Netanyahu Meeting → Divergent Strategies → Hardened Iranian Stance The meeting between President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu revealed differing views on how to proceed, with both believing Iran needs more 'pain,' an approach that could harden Iran's position rather than compel a deal.
Strait of Hormuz Uncertainty → Mediator Efforts → Potential for MOU Revival Iran's insistence on control over the Strait of Hormuz despite US counter-arguments has led to mediators trying to bridge gaps, potentially reviving a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to stabilize the crucial waterway.
US-Saudi Nuclear Deal → Regional Proliferation Concerns → New Strategic Equation The US-Saudi civil nuclear cooperation agreement, allowing for a feasibility study on uranium enrichment, creates a new strategic equation in the Middle East, raising concerns about nuclear proliferation in an already volatile region.
What others are saying
Carnegie Endowment (Aaron David Miller). The deaths of US service members in Jordan have heightened fears of a return to all-out war between the United States and Iran, crossing a 'red line' for President Donald Trump.
Atlantic Council. The assumption that Iran has not felt enough pain is mistaken; further strikes are more likely to harden Iran's position, necessitating a new approach led by those most impacted by the Strait of Hormuz closure.
The Soufan Center. The June US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding did not reconcile rival strategic objectives, positioning Oman to play a central role if the truce collapses.
What we’ll be watching
- Iran's official response to the latest US airstrikes.
- Further statements from Jordan or Egypt regarding the attacks on their territories.
- Updates from mediators (Pakistan, Egypt, Qatar) on Strait of Hormuz negotiations.
- Any official statements from the US or Iran regarding the status of nuclear talks.
- Developments following the Trump-Netanyahu meeting, particularly on a unified strategy.
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