Trump Declares Ceasefire Over, US Demands Open Hormuz Amid Iran's Assassination Plot Threats
The US continues diplomacy with Iran despite renewed tensions and a ceasefire declaration, while demanding free passage in the Strait of Hormuz.
What happened, yesterday
- Escalation11 Jul President Donald Trump threatened to "decimate and destroy" Iran if any attempt is made on his life, following intelligence of an alleged assassination plot.
- Escalation11 Jul Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr warned that any attack on Iranian infrastructure would be retaliated against, specifically mentioning Israel.
- Diplomacy11 Jul US officials confirmed that "technical talks" with Iran are continuing through mediators despite President Trump declaring the ceasefire "over."
- Escalation11 Jul The US Treasury Department sanctioned Dubai-based Iranian financier Ali Ansari and associated entities for allegedly diverting funds to Mojtaba Khamenei and the IRGC.
- Diplomacy11 Jul The US is demanding Iran publicly commit to ending attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Escalation11 Jul Iran's UN diplomat, Ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani, stated that any activity in the Strait of Hormuz rests "exclusively with Iran."
- Escalation10 Jul Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Israel is prepared to resume its military campaign against Iran "with even greater force" if needed.
The story
The Middle East remains a landscape of intertwined threats and diplomatic overtures. President Donald Trump has declared the interim ceasefire with Iran "over" following Iranian attacks on commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, yet US officials indicate that "technical talks" are continuing through mediators. Iran, for its part, maintains it has honored its commitments under the memorandum of understanding. Tensions heightened further with Israel sharing intelligence about an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate President Trump, prompting a stark warning from the US leader of overwhelming retaliation. Meanwhile, Iran's Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohammad Bagher Zolghadr issued a direct threat to Israel, vowing retaliation for any attack on Iranian infrastructure. The US is now pressing Iran for a public commitment to ensure free navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, a demand Tehran's UN diplomat has countered by asserting Iran's exclusive control over the vital waterway. This suggests a continued struggle to define the terms of de-escalation, even as channels for dialogue remain open.
Who moved today
| Actor | What changed | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| US | President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran "over" but affirmed continuation of negotiations. | This signals a dual approach of maintaining pressure while leaving room for diplomatic engagement. |
| Iran | Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted Iran had "kept its word" on the MoU and accused the US of violations. | This indicates Iran's attempt to portray itself as adhering to agreements while pushing back against US accusations. |
| Israel | Defense Minister Israel Katz stated Israel is prepared to resume its military campaign against Iran "with even greater force." | This reinforces Israel's readiness for further military action, potentially increasing regional instability. |
| US Treasury Department | Sanctioned Dubai-based Iranian financier Ali Ansari and several currency exchange houses. | This aims to disrupt Iran's financing networks, particularly those linked to Mojtaba Khamenei and the IRGC. |
Three ways this might unfold
US and Iran achieve a new, verifiable agreement on nuclear program and regional security. ~20%
If ongoing technical talks yield concrete commitments on Strait of Hormuz passage and nuclear oversight.
- Iran publicly commits to unimpeded commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The US and Iran agree on a framework for IAEA inspections of Iranian nuclear facilities.
- Sanctions relief on Iranian oil becomes a tangible component of the agreement.
- Regional proxies scale back operations, leading to a decrease in localized clashes.
- International shipping insurance premiums for the Gulf region decrease.
- Saudi Arabia and UAE might signal openness to direct dialogue with Tehran.
- US military presence in the Gulf could see a calibrated reduction.
- Israel might express reservations but acknowledge the diplomatic path.
A direct military confrontation erupts between the US/Israel and Iran, possibly over an attack or the Strait of Hormuz. ~40%
If Iran acts on threats against US or Israeli interests, or if the Strait of Hormuz is further disrupted.
- Significant increase in military strikes by all parties, targeting strategic assets.
- Strait of Hormuz becomes largely impassable for commercial shipping, driving up costs.
- Cyberattacks intensify, disrupting critical infrastructure in the region.
- Calls for revenge and further military action amplify from all sides.
- Regional alliances are further solidified, potentially drawing in more actors.
- Global oil prices surge dramatically, impacting energy-importing nations.
- Emergency diplomatic efforts by international bodies would likely be initiated.
- Increased humanitarian concerns and refugee flows in affected areas.
The current pattern of intermittent strikes, diplomatic posturing, and proxy engagements continues without full-scale war or a lasting deal. ~40%
If neither side pushes for a decisive military victory nor makes significant diplomatic concessions.
- Sporadic, targeted military actions continue, aimed at deterrence rather than conquest.
- Diplomatic channels remain open but yield limited tangible progress on core issues.
- Rhetoric from all parties remains strong, but actions stay below the threshold of full war.
- Commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz faces intermittent disruptions and higher costs.
- Sanctions on Iran remain largely in place, with minor adjustments.
- Regional proxy groups continue their activities, maintaining a low-level conflict.
- International mediators continue efforts to de-escalate, but without major breakthroughs.
- Economic impacts, particularly on energy markets, remain elevated but contained.
Around the world
| Country | What changed | Deduction |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 US | President Trump declared the ceasefire with Iran over but confirmed negotiations would continue. | The US is pursuing a dual strategy of pressure and diplomacy, indicating a desire to avoid full-scale conflict while addressing perceived Iranian aggression. |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | Foreign Minister Araghchi stated Iran had upheld its MoU commitments and accused the US of violations, while its UN diplomat asserted exclusive control over the Strait of Hormuz. | Iran is maintaining a defiant stance on its adherence to agreements and its sovereign rights over key waterways, despite international pressure. |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | Defense Minister Katz threatened to resume military action against Iran "with even greater force." | Israel remains prepared for aggressive action against Iran, signaling a potential for further escalation in the region. |
| 🇵🇰 Pakistan | Continues to mediate "technical talks" between the US and Iran. | Pakistan plays a crucial role in facilitating dialogue, attempting to de-escalate tensions and keep diplomatic channels open. |
| 🇶🇦 Qatar | Continues to mediate "technical talks" between the US and Iran. | Qatar is actively involved in diplomatic efforts to foster communication and reduce friction between the two adversaries. |
| 🇯🇵 Japan | Finance Minister reiterated readiness to intervene if rising oil prices, fueled by Middle East tensions, impact the yen. | Japan, a major energy importer, is closely monitoring the economic fallout and is prepared to act to stabilize its currency. |
Threads worth pulling
Iran's internal power struggles → Strait of Hormuz attacks → US sanctions on financiers US officials linked recent Strait of Hormuz attacks to a 'rogue faction of Iranian hard-liners trying to sabotage the ceasefire,' leading to US sanctions on individuals like Ali Ansari.
Alleged Trump assassination plot → US threats of "decimation" → heightened Israeli readiness Israel sharing intelligence about an assassination plot against Trump directly led to his strong threats against Iran, which in turn aligns with Israel's stated readiness for "greater force."
Iran's assertion of Hormuz control → increased shipping costs → global inflation Iran's claim of exclusive control over the Strait of Hormuz could lead to further disruptions, increasing oil and gas prices and contributing to global inflationary pressures, particularly in energy-importing nations.
US pause in strikes → diplomatic window → mediators' increased leverage The US decision to pause strikes to "let diplomacy work" provides an opportunity for mediators like Pakistan and Qatar to increase their efforts and influence in bringing the parties to the negotiating table.
What others are saying
The Soufan Center. Iranian leaders are struggling to center on a strategy to respond to the June 12-day war with Israel and the U.S. Operation Midnight Hammer strike on Iran's three main nuclear facilities.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace (Aaron David Miller). The U.S. led war with Iran approaches its fourth month, poised somewhere between escalation and a possible diplomatic off ramp.
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Ambiguity, mistrust, and differing interpretations by the United States, Israel, and Iran have left the ceasefire fragile, with Lebanon emerging as a key testing ground.
What we’ll be watching
- Iran's public statement regarding the Strait of Hormuz by Saturday's deadline.
- Any new US or Israeli military actions following Trump's threats.
- Statements from mediators (Qatar, Pakistan) on the progress of "technical talks."
- Iran's response to the US sanctions on Ali Ansari and associated entities.
- Any further intelligence shared by Israel regarding alleged assassination plots.
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