US, Iran Trade Fresh Strikes; Israel Threatens 'Greater Force' Amid Alleged Trump Assassination Plot
The US and Iran continue to exchange military strikes despite ongoing technical talks, while Israel threatens further action amidst reports of an Iranian plot against President Trump.
What happened, yesterday
- Escalation09 Jul US Central Command (CENTCOM) conducted a second night of strikes against approximately 90 Iranian military targets, including missile and drone storage sites.
- Escalation09 Jul Iran retaliated by targeting US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan, though a US official stated these caused no significant damage or injuries.
- Escalation09 Jul President Trump declared the interim ceasefire with Iran "over" following Iranian attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which he viewed as acts of terrorism.
- Diplomacy10 Jul Despite President Trump's statement, a US official confirmed that technical talks between the US and Iran are continuing to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon.
- Escalation09 Jul Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated his country is prepared to resume military action against Iran "with even greater force" if necessary.
- Escalation10 Jul Israel reportedly shared intelligence with US officials concerning an alleged new Iranian plot to assassinate President Donald Trump.
- Escalation10 Jul Shipping industry sources reported vessels were increasingly switching off AIS tracking transponders, and traffic came to a halt in the Strait of Hormuz.
The story
The Middle East remains gripped by escalating military actions, as the United States launched a second night of strikes against approximately 90 Iranian military targets. Iran swiftly retaliated, targeting US bases across Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan, though US officials reported no significant damage. President Donald Trump declared the interim ceasefire "over" following Iranian attacks on commercial tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which he described as acts of terrorism. Despite this public stance, a US official confirmed that technical talks with Iran are continuing to prevent a nuclear weapon. Adding a new layer of tension, Israel reportedly shared intelligence with US officials about an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate President Trump. Meanwhile, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz vowed his country is ready to strike Iran with "even greater force" if fighting resumes. The ongoing military exchanges and the alleged assassination plot underscore a highly volatile situation, where calibrated responses are attempting to prevent a broader conflict while fragile diplomatic channels remain open.
Who moved today
| Actor | What changed | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| US | Launched a second night of strikes against Iranian military targets, including missile and drone storage sites. | This action further escalated military tensions and was a direct response to Iranian actions in the Strait of Hormuz. |
| Iran | Carried out retaliatory strikes against US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan. | These strikes continued the cycle of tit-for-tat military actions, though a US official reported no significant damage or injuries. |
| President Trump | Declared the interim ceasefire with Iran "over" following attacks on commercial tankers. | This statement publicly signaled a return to open hostilities, although technical talks reportedly continue. |
| Israel | Its Defense Minister, Israel Katz, vowed to strike Iran with "even greater force" if fighting resumes. | This statement indicates Israel's readiness to escalate its own military campaign against Iran. |
| Israel (Intelligence) | Reportedly shared intelligence with the US about an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate President Trump. | This intelligence adds a new, serious dimension to the conflict, potentially influencing US policy and increasing security concerns. |
Three ways this might unfold
A new, robust agreement is reached, stabilizing the region and de-escalating military actions. ~20%
If ongoing technical talks successfully bridge the divide on nuclear activities and regional security, leading to a formal, verifiable peace agreement.
- Sanctions on Iran would be significantly eased.
- Strait of Hormuz transit would return to normal, with guaranteed free passage.
- Regional proxy conflicts would see a reduction in support and activity.
- International efforts would focus on reconstruction and economic integration for Iran.
- US military presence in the Gulf might be re-evaluated for reduction.
- Israel would receive guarantees regarding Iran's nuclear program and regional influence.
- Oil prices would likely stabilize or fall as supply concerns ease.
- The alleged assassination plot would be addressed through diplomatic or legal channels.
The current tit-for-tat exchanges spiral into a broader, direct military conflict involving multiple regional actors. ~45%
If either the US or Iran conducts a strike deemed disproportionate or directly targets critical infrastructure, or if the alleged assassination plot leads to direct retaliation.
- Direct military confrontation between the US and Iran would intensify.
- Israel would likely launch its promised "greater force" strikes against Iran.
- Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz could be severely disrupted or halted.
- Regional allies of both sides would be drawn further into the conflict.
- Significant cyber warfare attacks could occur.
- Humanitarian concerns and refugee flows would increase dramatically.
- Global energy markets would experience extreme volatility and price spikes.
- Diplomatic channels would likely close, and international mediation efforts would fail.
The current cycle of limited strikes and diplomatic ambiguity persists, with no clear resolution or immediate full-scale war. ~35%
If both the US and Iran continue calibrated responses, avoiding actions that force a full-scale war, while technical talks remain inconclusive.
- Intermittent military strikes and retaliations would continue in the Gulf.
- The Strait of Hormuz would remain a zone of heightened risk and occasional disruption.
- Technical talks would proceed slowly, yielding no immediate breakthroughs.
- Israel would maintain its elevated alert status and continue verbal threats.
- Regional tensions would remain high, impacting trade and security.
- The alleged assassination plot would be investigated, but not immediately lead to war.
- International calls for de-escalation would increase without concrete action.
- Economic uncertainty in the region would persist, affecting investment.
Around the world
| Country | What changed | Deduction |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 US | Launched additional strikes against Iran and continued technical talks despite President Trump declaring the ceasefire "over." | Washington is attempting to balance military deterrence with a limited diplomatic track. |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | Defense Minister Israel Katz threatened to strike Iran with "even greater force" if fighting resumes, and reportedly shared intelligence on an alleged Iranian plot against President Trump. | Israel is maintaining an aggressive posture and actively influencing US policy. |
Threads worth pulling
Alleged Assassination Plot → US-Iran Technical Talks → Nuclear Program Stalled The alleged Iranian plot to assassinate President Trump, if confirmed, could severely undermine any trust necessary for productive technical talks on Iran's nuclear program, potentially stalling diplomatic progress.
Strait of Hormuz Disruptions → Global Supply Chains → Semiconductor Manufacturing Increased shipping risks and vessels switching off transponders in the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt the flow of industrial inputs like sulfur and LNG, impacting semiconductor manufacturing in places like Taiwan.
US Base Relocation Discussions → Israeli Security Posture → Regional Targeting Discussions about relocating US bases from Gulf states to Israel's Negev desert, while strengthening the US-Israel alliance, could also make Israel a more prominent target for Iranian attacks.
Iranian Retaliatory Strikes → US Military Reassessment → F-35 Deal with Turkey Iranian strikes on US bases in the Gulf could prompt a US reassessment of its regional force posture, potentially influencing decisions like the F-35 deal with Turkey, which Israel has expressed concerns about.
Continued US-Iran Hostilities → European Energy Costs → Interest Rate Hikes Persistent conflict and elevated energy prices due to US-Iran hostilities could force European nations, heavily reliant on imported energy, to raise interest rates, potentially tipping their economies into recession.
What others are saying
Carnegie Endowment (Aaron David Miller). The ongoing US-led war with Iran is poised somewhere between escalation and a possible diplomatic off-ramp, highlighting the critical importance of the Trump administration's relationship with Israel.
Stimson Center (Barbara Slavin). Minefields obstruct the road to US-Iran peace, especially following the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Carnegie Endowment (Yasmine Zarhloule). Morocco and Algeria are navigating the global economic fallout of the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran.
What we’ll be watching
- Any further US retaliatory strikes against Iran.
- Iran's official response to the alleged assassination plot intelligence.
- Statements from the ongoing US-Iran technical talks.
- Israeli military movements or official declarations regarding Iran.
- Shipping incidents or changes in transponder activity in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Reactions from GCC nations to the ongoing US-Iran exchanges.
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