US and Iran Nearing Tentative Deal Amid Gulf Strikes; Israel Expands Gaza, Lebanon Operations
The US and Iran have a tentative agreement for a ceasefire extension and nuclear talks, though recent strikes and Israel's expanded operations test its fragility.
What happened, yesterday
- Escalation28 May The US military confirmed new "defensive" strikes against Iranian sites in the Persian Gulf and shot down five Iranian drones, which US Central Command stated posed a threat near the Strait of Hormuz.
- Escalation28 May Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) retaliated by striking a US airbase in Kuwait, identifying it as the origin of the US aerial assault near Bandar Abbas airport.
- Diplomacy28 May The White House confirmed that US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to extend the ceasefire by 60 days and launch talks on Iran's nuclear program, pending President Trump's approval.
- Escalation28 May Israel conducted airstrikes on the outskirts of Beirut and in southern Lebanon, including Tyre, resulting in civilian casualties.
- Diplomacy28 May US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to tighten pressure on Iran by targeting Iranian airlines' access to landing spots, refueling, and ticket sales.
- Diplomacy28 May Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei acknowledged that a large portion of issues in talks with the US had been concluded but cautioned that a deal was "not imminent" due to US "institutionalized vacillation."
- Escalation28 May Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called on Prime Minister Netanyahu to intensify strikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon, stating "For every drone that hits one of our soldiers, 100 buildings must be taken down."
The story
The Middle East remains a landscape of precarious diplomacy and intermittent conflict as the 91st day of the US-Israel-Iran war unfolds. Washington and Tehran have reportedly reached a tentative Memorandum of Understanding to extend their ceasefire by 60 days and begin discussions on Iran's nuclear program, a development awaiting President Trump's final approval. However, this diplomatic progress is shadowed by ongoing military exchanges; the US conducted "defensive" strikes against Iranian sites and drones in the Persian Gulf, prompting Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to retaliate with a strike on a US airbase in Kuwait. Adding to the regional volatility, Israel carried out airstrikes in Lebanon, impacting areas near Beirut and Tyre, and its Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for intensified action against Hezbollah. Iran's Foreign Ministry, while acknowledging progress in talks, expressed reservations about the deal's imminence due to perceived US vacillation. These actions underscore a complex environment where military pressure and diplomatic overtures continue simultaneously, making the path to a comprehensive resolution uncertain.
Who moved today
| Actor | What changed | Consequence |
|---|---|---|
| United States | Carried out "defensive" strikes on Iranian sites and shot down drones while confirming a tentative Memorandum of Understanding with Iran. | Maintained military pressure in the Gulf region while pursuing a diplomatic resolution, risking ceasefire violations even as a deal framework emerged. |
| Iran | Retaliated with strikes on a US airbase in Kuwait and its Foreign Ministry acknowledged progress in talks but cited US vacillation. | Signaled resolve to defend itself militarily while keeping diplomatic channels open, but also risked further escalation of hostilities. |
| Israel | Conducted airstrikes in Lebanon, including Beirut and Tyre, and stated intent to seize more Gaza territory. | Heightened regional tensions and complicated wider peace efforts between the US and Iran due to its expanded military operations. |
| US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent | Announced plans to tighten pressure on Iranian airlines by targeting their access to landing spots, refueling, and ticket sales. | Increased economic pressure on Tehran outside of direct military action, aimed at forcing a satisfactory outcome in negotiations. |
Three ways this might unfold
A formal US-Iran peace agreement is signed, extending the ceasefire and initiating comprehensive nuclear talks. ~30%
If President Trump approves the tentative MoU and Iran agrees to further concessions on its nuclear program.
- Direct military exchanges between the US and Iran would cease.
- Sanctions relief discussions for Iran would begin in earnest.
- Israel's military operations in Lebanon might face increased international diplomatic pressure for de-escalation.
- Regional proxy conflicts could see a reduction in external support.
- The political landscape in both the US and Iran would shift towards stability through negotiation.
- International efforts to monitor Iran's nuclear activities would intensify.
- The Strait of Hormuz would likely see eased restrictions on shipping.
The fragile ceasefire collapses, leading to direct and expanded military confrontation between the US and Iran. ~40%
If President Trump rejects the MoU, or if ongoing military exchanges lead to a significant, uncontained incident.
- US and Iranian forces would engage in more frequent and direct clashes in the Gulf region.
- Israel would likely intensify its operations against Iranian-backed groups in Lebanon and potentially Syria.
- New economic sanctions would be imposed on Iran by the US and its allies.
- Iran might further restrict or close the Strait of Hormuz, impacting regional maritime traffic.
- Regional allies of both the US and Iran would be drawn into heightened states of alert or conflict.
- Diplomatic channels for de-escalation would become severely strained or close.
- Iran could accelerate its nuclear enrichment activities in response to increased pressure.
The current state of fragile ceasefire, intermittent strikes, and stalled diplomatic progress continues. ~30%
If neither side makes decisive moves towards either full agreement or full confrontation, maintaining a balance of pressure and limited engagement.
- Sporadic military exchanges between US and Iranian forces would persist.
- Negotiations would continue to be characterized by slow progress and mutual accusations of bad faith.
- Israel would likely maintain its current level of military pressure on Hezbollah in Lebanon and its Gaza operations.
- US economic sanctions on Iran would remain in place, with potential for minor adjustments.
- The Strait of Hormuz would continue to operate under heightened security and potential disruptions.
- Regional actors would remain cautious, avoiding full commitment to either side.
- Iran's nuclear program would continue under existing monitoring, without significant new restrictions or acceleration.
Around the world
| Country | What changed | Deduction |
|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 United States | Confirmed a tentative agreement with Iran for a ceasefire extension and nuclear talks, while simultaneously conducting "defensive" strikes in the Persian Gulf. | Balancing military pressure with diplomatic efforts to secure a regional agreement, indicating a dual-track approach to the conflict. |
| 🇮🇷 Iran | Retaliated against US strikes by targeting a US airbase in Kuwait and its Foreign Ministry acknowledged progress in talks but expressed caution. | Navigating military retaliation with ongoing diplomatic efforts to alleviate pressure, signaling a desire for a deal while asserting its defensive capabilities. |
| 🇰🇼 Kuwait | Reported missile and drone attacks from Iran targeting a US airbase within its territory. | Directly impacted by retaliatory strikes, highlighting the regional spread of the conflict beyond the primary actors. |
| 🇱🇧 Lebanon | Experienced Israeli airstrikes on its capital and southern regions, resulting in civilian casualties. | Remains a flashpoint in the broader regional conflict, with Israeli actions complicating efforts for stability and peace. |
| 🇮🇱 Israel | Conducted strikes in Lebanon and its Finance Minister called for intensified action against Hezbollah, while also reportedly seeking to seize more Gaza territory. | Pursuing its security objectives with expanded military actions, potentially at odds with broader de-escalation efforts in the region. |
Threads worth pulling
US strikes on Iran → Iran retaliates on US ally Kuwait → Complicates US-Iran deal approval US military actions against Iranian sites provoked a direct retaliatory strike by Iran on a US airbase in Kuwait, which could strain the delicate diplomatic process for a US-Iran deal.
Israel expands Gaza control + Lebanon strikes → Iran demands Lebanon inclusion in deal → Stalls US-Iran peace Israel's intensified military operations in Lebanon and stated territorial goals in Gaza are contributing to Iran's insistence that Lebanon be part of any US-Iran agreement, potentially slowing diplomatic progress.
US Treasury threatens Iranian airlines → Iran seeks alternative land routes for trade → Tests effectiveness of US blockade New US sanctions targeting Iranian airlines' international access could prompt Iran to further develop alternative land-based trade routes, challenging the impact of the existing US naval blockade.
US President Trump circulates draft peace agreement → Vice President Vance highlights "sticking points" on uranium → Reveals internal US negotiation challenges While a draft US-Iran peace agreement is circulating, statements from US Vice President JD Vance about remaining sticking points, particularly on uranium enrichment, indicate internal complexities within the US negotiating position.
Iran hangs alleged Israeli spy → Heightens distrust between Iran and Israel → Further complicates any indirect peace efforts involving Israel Iran's execution of an individual accused of spying for Israel exacerbates the deep-seated distrust between the two nations, making any potential indirect diplomatic engagement or broader peace efforts more challenging.
What others are saying
Al-Monitor (Laura Blumenfeld). Trump's rhetorical swings and abrupt reversals of the past week suggest a president trying to park a wide war in a tight spot, highlighting the difficult balance between de-escalation and hardline stances.
The Soufan Center (May 11, 2026 Intelbrief). The situation presents 'Confusing Signals in the U.S.-Iran War,' with efforts to "escalate to de-escalate" creating mixed messages regarding the path to conflict resolution.
What we’ll be watching
- President Trump's decision on the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding.
- Iran's official response to US strikes and new sanctions.
- Further Israeli military actions in Lebanon or Gaza.
- Statements from Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states regarding Strait of Hormuz.
- Details emerging from the proposed US-Iran nuclear talks.
- Any new UN or international body statements on regional conflicts.
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