Ukraine warns of high probability of Russian Oreshnik IRBM launch in next 24-48 hours
The Ukrainian Air Force issued a warning regarding a potential Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile launch, following an overnight drone attack across Ukraine.
The day on the war
The Ukrainian Air Force has warned of a high probability that Russian forces may launch an Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) at Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours. This warning, issued on June 12, was reportedly corroborated by an informed source in the Ukrainian government, citing a United States alert.
The Kremlin has previously used Oreshniks against Ukraine at least three times in 2026, and this potential launch is seen as part of an escalating long-range strike campaign, possibly to posture strength after Russia's June 12 holiday. Meanwhile, Russian forces launched 118 strike drones against Ukraine overnight on June 13, with Ukrainian air defenses intercepting most, though some hit their targets. On the ground, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russian forces continue to make tactical gains in Kostyantynivka, their main effort for the spring-summer 2026 offensive, while Ukrainian defenses in the city's southeastern sections are deteriorating.
Along the front
| Sector | Development | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Kostyantynivka | Russian forces continue to make tactical gains, and Ukraine's ability to defend the southeastern sections of the city is deteriorating. | ISW |
| Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area | Ukrainian forces recently advanced. | ISW |
| Oleksandrivka direction | Ukrainian forces recently advanced. | ISW |
| Pokrovsk direction | Ukrainian forces recently thwarted a Russian mechanized assault. | ISW |
| Northern Sumy Oblast | Russian forces continued offensive operations on June 11 and 12 but did not advance. | ISW |
Strikes & the grid
| Location | What | Toll |
|---|---|---|
| Across Ukraine | Russian forces launched 118 strike drones overnight. | Most drones were shot down by Ukrainian air defense, but some hit targets. |
What we'll be watching next 72h
- Monitoring for a potential Russian Oreshnik intermediate-range ballistic missile launch at Ukraine in the next 24-48 hours, as warned by the Ukrainian Air Force and a US alert.
- Observing the construction of at least five new long-range Russian drone launch sites in western Russia, near Belarus, which may support future drone strikes against Ukraine, potentially exploiting Belarusian airspace.
Reporting + analyst voices: grounded via Google Search at publish time.