First Move  ·  Statecraft  · 
From the capitals — Thursday morning, 23 July

US, China Foreign Ministers Agree to Prepare for High-Level Exchanges in Manila

Secretary Rubio and Foreign Minister Wang Yi met to manage differences and advance constructive ties, with further high-level talks anticipated following their latest discussion.

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The conversation that mattered

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held a bilateral meeting in Manila on Wednesday, with readouts released today, where both sides agreed to prepare for high-level exchanges in the next phase.

The meeting, held on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, saw Beijing and Washington agree to implement the consensus reached by their respective heads of state and utilize political and diplomatic channels. Foreign Minister Wang Yi emphasized China's position regarding recent U.S. remarks and actions, urging Washington to respect China's core interests, adhere to the one-China principle, and effectively manage disagreements.

Both parties described the meeting as pragmatic, positive, and constructive, aiming to promote substantive progress in a constructive China-U.S. relationship of strategic stability. This engagement sets the stage for continued diplomatic efforts to translate leaders' consensus into action across various domains.

Today's meetings

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio

Actor Two: Republic of Korea Foreign Minister Cho Hyun and Japanese Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu

Venue Or Format: Trilateral meeting on the margins of ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meetings in Manila

What Was Discussed: Strengthening defense cooperation, maritime security, energy security, combating cyber threats, and maintaining a unified approach toward the denuclearization of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK).

Signal: Underscores a shared commitment to regional stability and enhanced trilateral coordination on critical Indo-Pacific issues.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio

Actor Two: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

Venue Or Format: Sidelines of ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meetings in Manila

What Was Discussed: The U.S.-Russia relationship and the imperative to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

Signal: Indicates ongoing, albeit strained, diplomatic engagement on major global conflicts despite a lack of immediate Russian readout.

Multilateral pulse

ASEAN Foreign Ministers Meetings. Three days of closed-door discussions in Manila focused on the resurgent war in the Middle East, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and a new clash in the South China Sea.

Bilateral threads worth following

US ↔ Saudi Arabia

Current State: A nuclear cooperation agreement has been approved by the US, raising concerns in Israel regarding potential uranium enrichment.

Last Move: On July 22, the Trump administration approved a 30-year nuclear agreement establishing a civilian nuclear program, potentially allowing uranium enrichment on Saudi soil.

US ↔ Iran

Current State: Tensions remain high with ongoing US air campaigns and stalled diplomatic efforts following the collapse of an interim ceasefire.

Last Move: On July 22, the US completed an 11th consecutive night of strikes, while Iran's Interior Minister traveled to Pakistan for mediation efforts.

US ↔ Serbia

Current State: The two nations are strengthening their partnership through strategic dialogue and cooperation across various sectors.

Last Move: On July 17, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Djuric led the inaugural U.S.-Serbia Strategic Dialogue in Washington, DC, signing an MOU on energy infrastructure.

China ↔ Thailand

Current State: The relationship is deepening through strategic mutual trust and expanded cooperation, including a new defense dialogue mechanism.

Last Move: From July 16-20, Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul visited China, meeting President Xi Jinping and agreeing to establish a '2+2' strategic dialogue mechanism involving foreign and defense ministers.

US ↔ Mexico/Canada (USMCA)

Current State: The trade agreement remains in full force, but the US declined to extend it for an additional 16 years, triggering annual reviews.

Last Move: On July 1, the US declined to extend the USMCA, with the next bilateral negotiating round between the US and Mexico scheduled for the week of July 20.

What we'll be watching next 72h

Reporting + analyst voices: grounded via Google Search at publish time.