First Move  ·  Statecraft  · 
From the capitals — Monday morning, 13 July

US and Iran Openly Contest Strait of Hormuz Control Amid Escalating Strikes

Tensions between the US and Iran deepened today over control of the Strait of Hormuz, while UN Secretary-General Guterres urged de-escalation and a return to negotiations.

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The conversation that mattered

The diplomatic landscape saw a significant escalation today as the United States and Iran openly contested control of the Strait of Hormuz, shifting their conflict from retaliatory strikes to a struggle over access to the vital maritime corridor. US Central Command (CENTCOM) affirmed the waterway is "open to all vessels" and that US forces are "positioned and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available despite unwarranted Iranian aggression." Conversely, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it launched warning shots at a "violating ship" in the Strait and declared the strait closed "until further notice." This follows a new wave of US strikes on Iranian military targets, which Iran's foreign ministry stated have "rendered futile" recent diplomatic efforts and caused "the return of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz." Mediators, including Pakistan, have played an integral role in past negotiations, with a recent readout from Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs indicating that leaders exchanged views on regional developments and expressed concern over escalations, agreeing that the renewed conflict undermines peace.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has called for an immediate end to attacks and urged both nations to resume negotiations. The ongoing dispute over the strait now sits at the center of the confrontation.

Today's meetings

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas

Actor Two: EU Foreign Ministers

Venue Or Format: Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels

What Was Discussed: Ministers exchanged views on Russia's war against Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, Black Sea strategy, and EU-UN relations.

Signal: Highlights ongoing EU focus on major geopolitical crises and regional security frameworks.

EU Ministers

Actor Two: EU-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) High-Level Forum

Venue Or Format: Lunch break meeting during Foreign Affairs Council in Brussels

What Was Discussed: Discussions focused on regional security and cooperation.

Signal: Indicates efforts to foster dialogue and stability between the EU and Gulf states.

India's External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar

Actor Two: United Nations

Venue Or Format: New York

What Was Discussed: Launched India's official campaign for the UN Security Council tenure 2028-29.

Signal: Signals India's ambition for a more prominent role in global governance.

Kazakhstan's Minister of Foreign Affairs Yermek Kosherbayev

Actor Two: China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi

Venue Or Format: Working visit to China

What Was Discussed: Began a working visit to China to discuss bilateral relations and international issues of mutual interest.

Signal: Reinforces deepening ties and strategic coordination between China and Kazakhstan.

ASEAN Foreign Ministers

Actor Two: Myanmar's Foreign Minister

Venue Or Format: Meeting

What Was Discussed: Called for concrete actions to reduce violence in Myanmar.

Signal: Represents a continued effort by ASEAN to address the internal conflict in Myanmar.

Joint statements + readouts

United States Central Command

Topic: Strait of Hormuz navigation

Key Line: The Strait of Hormuz is "open to all vessels" seeking to pass through the waterway, and United States forces are "positioned and prepared to ensure that freedom of navigation remains available."

Iran's Foreign Ministry

Topic: US strikes and Strait of Hormuz

Key Line: The latest wave of U.S. attacks on its territory had "rendered futile" all the diplomatic efforts of the last few months and caused "the return of insecurity in the Strait of Hormuz."

Multilateral pulse

EU Foreign Affairs Council. Chaired by EU High Representative Kaja Kallas in Brussels, ministers discussed Russia's war in Ukraine, the situation in the Middle East, the Black Sea strategy, and EU-UN relations.

Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Top diplomats called for "concrete actions" to reduce violence in Myanmar during their first meeting with the country's foreign minister since the 2021 military coup.

Bilateral threads worth following

US ↔ Iran

Current State: Tensions are escalating over control of the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides asserting their positions and engaging in military actions.

Last Move: US Central Command declared the Strait of Hormuz open to all vessels, while Iran claimed to have fired warning shots and announced the strait's closure.

China ↔ Thailand

Current State: The two nations are preparing for a high-level official visit to deepen comprehensive strategic cooperation.

Last Move: China announced that Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul will pay an official visit to China from July 16 to 20.

China ↔ Kazakhstan

Current State: Diplomatic engagement is underway to enhance political mutual trust and discuss regional issues.

Last Move: Kazakhstan's Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev commenced a working visit to China from July 13 to 14.

US ↔ Pakistan

Current State: Pakistan continues to play a mediating role in regional escalations, particularly between the US and Iran.

Last Move: Pakistan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a readout confirming an exchange of views between two leaders on recent regional developments.

What we'll be watching next 72h

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