First Move  ·  Statecraft  · 
From the capitals — Thursday morning, 25 June

Eastern Flank Leaders in Gdansk Affirm Russia as Primary Threat, Boost Euro-Atlantic Security

Leaders from seven European nations signed a joint declaration in Gdansk, committing to strengthened defense against Russian aggression and continued support for Ukraine, with further cooperation expected.

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Leaders from Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Sweden convened in Gdansk, Poland, on June 25, adopting a joint declaration that unequivocally identified Russia's hostile policy and war against Ukraine as the most significant direct and long-term threat to Euro-Atlantic security. The Eastern Flank Summit emphasized the region's role as the first line of defense for the EU and NATO.

The declaration called for continued military, civilian, financial, and political assistance to Ukraine and stressed the importance of its integration into Euro-Atlantic structures. Furthermore, the leaders committed to reinforcing their own resilience and defense capabilities, including strengthening NATO's presence on the Eastern Flank and increasing defense expenditures.

They also recognized the need for the European Union to further define and strengthen its role in responding to the evolving security crisis. The next steps involve continued cooperation within the Coalition of the Willing on security guarantees for Ukraine.

Today's meetings

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev

Actor Two: European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen

Venue Or Format: Brussels

What Was Discussed: Strengthening Kazakhstan-EU strategic partnership in trade, investment, transport connectivity, and energy cooperation, including a Horizontal Aviation Agreement and a framework loan for infrastructure.

Signal: Underscores deepening economic and strategic ties between Central Asia and the European Union.

Sudan's Undersecretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Muawiya Osman Khalid

Actor Two: Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Borisenko

Venue Or Format: Moscow

What Was Discussed: Boosting political and economic cooperation, elevating bilateral relations to a strategic partnership, and Russia's active participation in Sudan's post-war reconstruction.

Signal: Signals Sudan's intent to strengthen alignment with Russia, particularly in economic and security spheres.

Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf

Actor Two: Omani officials

Venue Or Format: Muscat

What Was Discussed: Joint Iranian-Omani management of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing commitment to a clause in the US-Iran memorandum of understanding.

Signal: Indicates ongoing efforts to define maritime administration and services in the critical waterway.

Lebanese and Israeli officials

Actor Two: US mediators

Venue Or Format: Washington D.C.

What Was Discussed: Resuming peace talks, with the US emphasizing direct negotiations as the only feasible path to reconstruction and stability, alongside calls to disarm Hezbollah.

Signal: Highlights continued diplomatic pressure for de-escalation and a lasting peace agreement in the region.

Joint statements + readouts

Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, and Sweden

Topic: Euro-Atlantic Security and Russia's Aggression

Key Line: Russia's hostile policy and war of aggression against Ukraine have confirmed that Russia remains the most significant, direct, and long-term threat to the security, peace, and stability of the Euro-Atlantic area.

European Union and Kazakhstan

Topic: Strategic Partnership and Connectivity

Key Line: The EU and Kazakhstan signed a joint press statement, as well as several agreements that will deliver for citizens and business on both sides, including agreements on connectivity, in particular aviation, and critical raw materials.

Iran and Oman

Topic: Strait of Hormuz Administration

Key Line: Iranian and Omani officials released a joint statement following the talks that emphasized their commitment to clause 5 of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding (MoU), which states that Iran will work with Oman to 'define the future administration and maritime services in the Strait of Hormuz'.

Multilateral pulse

E5 Leaders' Meeting (France, Germany, Italy, Poland, UK). Leaders met in Berlin with the NATO Secretary General to affirm unwavering commitment to Euro-Atlantic security and to collectively work towards a successful NATO summit in Ankara, focusing on strengthening Europe's role within NATO and defense industrial cooperation.

BRICS National Security Advisors (NSA) Meeting. China's Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Director of the Office of the Central Commission for Foreign Affairs Wang Yi attended the meeting to exchange views on international security, regional issues, and joint responses to security challenges.

Bilateral threads worth following

US ↔ Iran

Current State: Negotiations are ongoing, but public statements reveal conflicting interpretations of initial agreements.

Last Move: On June 24, Iran and the United States issued contradictory statements regarding what had been officially agreed upon in their negotiations, with IAEA head Rafael Mariano Grossi clarifying that Iranian nuclear sites would be visited by inspectors.

Israel ↔ Lebanon

Current State: Peace talks have resumed in Washington, focusing on stability and the disarmament of Hezbollah.

Last Move: Negotiations between Israel and Lebanon were scheduled for June 23-25 in Washington to discuss progress toward a lasting peace, with the US reiterating the need to disarm Hezbollah.

Sudan ↔ Russia

Current State: Discussions are underway to elevate bilateral relations to a strategic partnership, with a focus on post-war reconstruction.

Last Move: Sudan's Undersecretary Muawiya Osman Khalid met Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Georgy Borisenko on June 23 in Moscow to discuss political and economic cooperation and announced Sudan's Sovereign Council Chairman al-Burhan's attendance at the Russia-Africa Summit in October.

Kazakhstan ↔ EU

Current State: The strategic partnership is deepening, with new agreements on connectivity and critical raw materials.

Last Move: President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev held talks with European Council President António Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on June 23-24 in Brussels, adopting a joint statement and signing agreements on aviation and infrastructure.

What we'll be watching next 72h

Reporting + analyst voices: grounded via Google Search at publish time.