US Pending Home Sales Plummet to 25-Year Low as Mortgage Rates Top 7.28%
Global real estate sees US demand falter amid high borrowing costs, while Savills projects overall investment to exceed $1 trillion in 2026.
The story
The US housing market continues to face significant headwinds, with pending home sales in September falling to their lowest level since 2001. Contract signings for existing homes decreased by 7.3% month-over-month and were down 11.3% compared to a year ago, as reported by the National Association of Realtors.
This downturn is largely attributed to elevated borrowing costs, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaching 7.28% this week. While national single-family home prices saw a modest year-over-year increase of 1.5% as of mid-October, condo prices experienced a decline of 1.1% across the country, highlighting a divergence in market performance. This contrasts with a more optimistic global investment outlook, as Savills forecasts global real estate investment volume to grow by 15% in 2026, surpassing $1 trillion.
G20 + UAE this cycle
| Country | Price Yoy Pct | Prime Yield Pct | Mortgage Rate Pct | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 1.5% (single-family) | 7.28% | tightening | |
| United Kingdom | -0.1% (asking prices) | flat |
UAE corner
The UAE has recently introduced important changes to its Golden Visa program, aiming for stricter criteria while significantly expanding benefits. These updates, discussed at GITEX Global 2025, now offer Golden Visa holders consular services previously exclusive to UAE nationals.
This includes access to emergency and crisis response services, and the ability to apply for an Electronic Return Document for lost or damaged passports. For skilled professionals, the minimum salary requirement for eligibility is now AED 30,000 per month, calculated solely on basic wage, excluding allowances. New eligible categories have also been added, such as teachers, influencers, content creators, and gaming professionals.
India corner
India's real estate market continues to attract global interest, driven by increasing urbanization and business activities, according to a recent Savills report. Major urban centers like Mumbai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Delhi are noted as significant markets.
While specific RERA updates or NRI investment flow figures for the past few days are not immediately available, the broader sentiment points to sustained demand. Investors are increasingly looking at countries with growing populations and infrastructure development, with India being explicitly highlighted in this trend.
Residency-by-investment
Golden Visa
Country: Portugal
Threshold: €500,000 (investment funds)
What Changed: Citizenship timeline extended from 5 to 10 years for most new applicants (effective May 19, 2026). Real estate investment route removed in October 2023.
Golden Visa
Country: UAE
Threshold: AED 2 million (real estate) or AED 30,000/month (skilled professionals)
What Changed: Expanded benefits include consular services, emergency response, and electronic return documents. New categories like teachers, influencers, and content creators are eligible. Minimum salary for skilled professionals now strictly basic wage.
Spotlight country
In the United Kingdom, the housing market is currently characterized by a sideways movement rather than a sharp decline. Average new-seller asking prices in October 2026 were down a marginal 0.1% year-on-year, standing at £371,015.
This national figure, however, masks considerable regional variations. London, for instance, saw its prices fall by 2.2% annually, largely impacted by a 5% drop in flat prices, which constitute half of the capital's sales.
Conversely, North East England recorded the strongest annual growth among English regions at 3.2%, benefiting from relative affordability. This regional divergence suggests that while the overall market is flat, local dynamics are playing a crucial role in price movements.
The contrarian view
Despite some underlying factors moving favorably, US home affordability remains severely strained. According to ATTOM's latest U.S.
Home Affordability Report, homes were less affordable than historical averages in 98% of counties analyzed for the third quarter of 2026. Major monthly expenses for median-priced single-family homes and condos exceeded their historical norms in 570 out of 583 counties. Even with a national median home sales price that was 1% lower in Q3 than Q2, and 2% lower year-over-year, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate of 7.3% and rising consumer price index continue to dampen affordability.
What we'll be watching
- Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee interest rate decision on November 5, 2026.
- US Federal Reserve's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 27-28, 2026.
Reporting + analyst voices: grounded via Google Search at publish time.