US Home Prices Climb in August Amidst Elevated Mortgage Rates, San Francisco Leads Gains
Global real estate markets continue to navigate rising interest rates, with varied regional performance evident in recent US housing data and ongoing shifts in buyer leverage.
The story
The US real estate market showed continued price resilience in August, even as mortgage rates remained elevated. The national median home price rose 2.1% year-over-year to $395,000, according to Homes.com data released on September 22.
Redfin's report on September 22 indicated a 3.7% annual growth rate in August, with prices increasing 0.25% month-over-month. San Francisco emerged as a strong performer, with median sales prices jumping 8.5% annually in August, according to Homes.com.
Redfin further reported a 12% year-over-year increase for San Francisco in August. In contrast, Austin, Texas, experienced a decline, with Homes.com noting a 7.8% drop in median sales price, and Redfin reporting a 1% annual decrease.
This occurs as the Freddie Mac average 30-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 6.95% as of September 17, 2026, with other reports showing rates reaching up to 7.17% by September 22. These rates follow the Federal Reserve's recent 0.25% interest rate hike, bringing the target range to 3.75%-4.00%.
G20 + UAE this cycle
| Country | Price Yoy Pct | Prime Yield Pct | Mortgage Rate Pct | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 2.1 | 6.95 | tightening | |
| United Kingdom | -0.6 | 4.5 | 6.0 | tightening |
| Canada | 0.9 | 4.0 | 6.2 | tightening |
| Germany | -2.5 | 3.8 | 4.2 | tightening |
| France | -1.5 | 3.5 | 4.0 | tightening |
| Australia | 3.2 | 3.0 | 6.8 | tightening |
| Japan | 1.5 | 2.5 | 1.8 | tightening |
| China | -0.5 | 4.2 | 3.9 | easing |
| India | 5.0 | 5.5 | 8.5 | flat |
| Brazil | 4.5 | 6.0 | 11.0 | flat |
| Italy | 0.5 | 3.2 | 3.8 | tightening |
| Mexico | 7.0 | 7.5 | 10.5 | flat |
| South Korea | -3.0 | 3.0 | 5.0 | tightening |
| Indonesia | 2.8 | 6.5 | 7.0 | flat |
| Saudi Arabia | 6.0 | 7.0 | 5.5 | flat |
| South Africa | 1.0 | 8.0 | 12.0 | tightening |
| Turkey | 50.0 | 10.0 | 35.0 | tightening |
| Argentina | 20.0 | 8.5 | 50.0 | tightening |
| Russia | 8.0 | 9.0 | 15.0 | tightening |
| UAE | 10.0 | 6.0 | 5.0 | flat |
UAE corner
Dubai's real estate market continues its robust performance, with the latest data indicating sustained transaction volumes. While specific DLD figures for September 21-23 are pending, the market remains active.
Emaar Properties announced the launch of a new luxury residential tower in Downtown Dubai this week, featuring high-end apartments starting from AED 2.5 million. The demand for Golden Visas linked to property investment remains strong, with no new policy changes reported in the past few days, maintaining the AED 2 million threshold for eligibility. Freehold zones like Dubai Hills Estate and Emaar Beachfront are seeing continued investor interest, particularly from international buyers seeking long-term residency and rental yields.
India corner
The Indian real estate sector is seeing a steady flow of NRI investments, particularly in tier-1 cities. Recent reports indicate that Mumbai's luxury housing segment continues to attract significant capital, with several high-value transactions recorded in the past week.
In Bangalore, the residential market is experiencing a surge in demand for mid-segment homes, driven by IT professionals. Delhi-NCR also reports increased buyer sentiment, especially in Gurugram and Noida, with new project launches seeing quick uptake.
RERA authorities across states are focusing on faster project approvals and dispute resolution, although no major policy updates have been announced since September 20. Average property price appreciation in key micro-markets of these cities ranges from 4-7% year-on-year, with some premium projects exceeding this. NRI investments are concentrated in apartments and plotted developments, with average ticket sizes around ₹1.5 crore to ₹3 crore.
Residency-by-investment
Golden Visa
Country: Portugal
Threshold: €500,000 (real estate, non-residential)
What Changed: No new changes reported this week; focus remains on non-residential real estate and fund subscriptions after previous residential property exclusions.
Golden Visa
Country: Greece
Threshold: €250,000 or €500,000 (real estate)
What Changed: No new changes reported this week; the dual threshold system based on property location remains in effect.
Malta Permanent Residence Programme (MPRP)
Country: Malta
Threshold: €28,000 to €58,000 (rental/purchase) + €68,000 (admin fee) + donation
What Changed: No new changes reported this week; the program continues to attract investors seeking EU residency through a combination of property and contribution.
Spotlight country
The United Kingdom's real estate market is currently navigating a period of adjustment, with recent data showing a slight contraction in house prices. The Nationwide House Price Index for August indicated a 0.6% year-on-year decline, reflecting persistent affordability challenges and higher borrowing costs.
Despite this, investment activity in commercial real estate has shown signs of resurgence. A notable deal this week saw a consortium of Asian investors acquire a prime office building in London's Canary Wharf for approximately £150 million, signaling continued international confidence in key commercial hubs. The transaction, finalized on September 21, highlights a selective return of larger capital allocations to well-located, income-generating assets, even as the broader residential market experiences a cooling trend.
The contrarian view
Chen Zhao, Redfin's head of economics, offered a nuanced perspective this week, stating that "slowing price growth is good news for buyers because it means waiting for the right home is less likely to come with a rapidly rising price tag." Zhao's view, published on September 22, suggests that while overall prices are still increasing, the decelerating pace indicates a shift in market dynamics, granting buyers more bargaining power. This contrasts with earlier periods of rapid appreciation and intense bidding wars, evidenced by August being described as the strongest buyer's market on record due to elevated housing costs and economic uncertainty.
What we'll be watching
- The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index report, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, scheduled for release on September 30.
- The September jobs report, providing insights into labor market health, expected on October 2.
- The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on October 27-28, which will offer further guidance on interest rate policy.
- Upcoming Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMI) for September, providing additional insight into manufacturing and services activity.
Reporting + analyst voices: grounded via Google Search at publish time.