US Housing Market Shifts as Sellers Outnumber Buyers, Mortgage Rates Fluctuate
The US housing market is tilting towards buyers with increased inventory, while mortgage rates show slight volatility amidst global economic shifts.
The story
The US housing market has seen a notable shift this week, with a Redfin survey published August 16, 2026, indicating that sellers now outnumber buyers by 51%. This dynamic is giving buyers more leverage, particularly in Southern metros like Miami, where sellers outnumber buyers by 154%, followed by Nashville (151%), Houston (130%), San Antonio (116%), and Austin (112%).
July recorded the lowest number of buyers since 2013, driven by affordability pressures. Concurrently, US mortgage rates have shown some fluctuation.
On August 16, the average 30-year fixed refinance rate dipped to 6.94%, a 7 basis point drop from the previous week. However, on August 15, the same rate had risen by 11 basis points to 7.12%.
This volatility suggests an uncertain environment for borrowers. Meanwhile, niche markets such as luxury homes, senior living, and modular construction are reportedly outperforming the broader market, with million-dollar home sales jumping 15% in July.
G20 + UAE this cycle
| Country | Price Yoy Pct | Prime Yield Pct | Mortgage Rate Pct | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | -3.41 | declining | ||
| United States | 6.94 | volatile | ||
| Canada | awaiting CPI data | |||
| Australia | awaiting wage data | |||
| United Kingdom | awaiting CPI data | |||
| Sweden | 1.75 | flat (policy rate) | ||
| Argentina | flat | |||
| Brazil | flat | |||
| France | flat | |||
| Germany | flat | |||
| India | flat | |||
| Indonesia | flat | |||
| Italy | flat | |||
| Japan | flat | |||
| Mexico | flat | |||
| Russia | flat | |||
| Saudi Arabia | flat | |||
| South Africa | flat | |||
| South Korea | flat | |||
| Turkey | flat | |||
| UAE | flat |
UAE corner
No new developments regarding DLD transactions, Golden Visa changes, or freehold zone news have been reported in the UAE since August 14, 2026. Previous updates from July and earlier in 2026 detailed changes to the Golden Visa property threshold, increasing it to AED 2 million ($544,000) for completed units and allowing mortgaged and off-plan properties to qualify under certain conditions.
These changes aimed to streamline the application process and attract more investors. However, no further modifications or significant transaction data have emerged in the last few days.
India corner
No new developments regarding RERA updates, tier-1 city real estate action, or NRI investment flows have been reported in India since August 14, 2026. Earlier reports indicated Maharashtra leading NRI property resale listings, accounting for 26.8% of properties in the pipeline, followed by Delhi-NCR at 23.4%.
NRI demand has been concentrated in RERA-compliant developments across major cities like Mumbai, Bengaluru, and Delhi-NCR, with luxury homes attracting a growing share of investment. However, no fresh data or policy changes have emerged in the last few days.
Residency-by-investment
Golden Visa
Country: UAE
Threshold: AED 2 million
What Changed: No new changes since August 14, 2026. Earlier in 2026, the requirement to pay 50% of property value upfront was eliminated, and mortgaged/off-plan properties now count if the appraised value reaches AED 2 million.
Golden Visa
Country: Greece
Threshold: €250,000 (real estate)
What Changed: No new changes since August 14, 2026. Earlier in 2026, the entry price was tripled in popular areas, but the €250,000 threshold remains for certain conversions.
Golden Visa
Country: Portugal
Threshold: €500,000 (fund subscriptions)
What Changed: No new changes since August 14, 2026. The real estate route ended in October 2023. Citizenship timeline was raised to 10 years for most nationalities earlier in 2026.
Spotlight country
In the United States, the housing market in Indiana continues to show growth. The Indiana Association of REALTORS reported on August 16, 2026, that 8,112 homes closed in July, marking a 5% increase year-over-year.
The median sale price reached $285,000. While mortgage rates averaging 6.5% slightly tempered new sales, the inventory saw an 11% increase, providing more options for buyers as the late summer market progresses. This indicates a resilient local market, even as national trends point to a broader shift in buyer-seller dynamics.
The contrarian view
No new named contrarian views or explicit warnings of a real estate crash have been reported since August 14, 2026. Earlier in August, some reports noted that approximately 40% of buyers and sellers expressed concern about a potential housing market crash this year, but experts like Lawrence Yun of the National Association of Realtors suggested that a widespread collapse in 2026 is unlikely due to factors like wage growth and homeowner equity. However, the recent Redfin survey indicating sellers outnumbering buyers by 51% in the US could be seen as a signal of increasing buyer power and potential price adjustments in the near future.
What we'll be watching
- Canada July CPI data release (Monday, August 17)
- Australia Q2 wage price index (Wednesday, August 19)
- UK July CPI data release (Wednesday, August 19)
- Riksbank policy rate decision (Thursday, August 20)
- UK July retail sales figures (Friday, August 21)
Reporting + analyst voices: grounded via Google Search at publish time.