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Across borders — Sunday morning, 05 July

Toronto and Vancouver Housing Markets Show Improving Stability and Sales Increases in June

North American housing markets like Toronto and Vancouver are seeing increased sales and stabilizing prices, while Dubai's real estate sector continues robust growth despite a slight moderation in overall transaction value.

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The story

Canada's housing market is showing improving stability, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Metro Vancouver, according to reports released this week. Toronto saw home sales increase 9.4% year-over-year in June 2026, with the average selling price down 3.9% compared to June 2025.

New listings declined by 12.9% year-over-year, tightening market conditions. In Metro Vancouver, June home sales jumped 9.6% year-over-year, marking a 20-month high in sales volume, though new listings also declined.

The benchmark HPI in Vancouver slipped just 0.1% in June, indicating price resilience after months of declines. Meanwhile, Dubai's property market recorded AED 286.43 billion ($78 billion) in sales during the first half of 2026, with 79,229 transactions.

While the overall transaction value for H1 2026 saw a decline compared to 2025, the average price per square foot increased by about 6%. The Dubai Land Department (DLD) also announced a significant policy shift this week, removing the minimum property value requirement for its two-year investor residency visa for sole owners of freehold property.

G20 + UAE this cycle

CountryPrice Yoy PctPrime Yield PctMortgage Rate PctDirection
Canada-5.4N/A4.45tightening
UAE6.0N/AN/Astabilizing
UK2.2N/A4.23easing
China-6.95N/AN/Adeclining
USN/AN/A6.4flat

UAE corner

Dubai's property market saw AED 286.43 billion ($78 billion) in sales across 79,229 transactions in the first half of 2026. The Dubai Land Department (DLD) announced a significant change to its two-year investor residency visa, removing the previous AED 750,000 minimum property value requirement for sole owners of completed freehold property.

This move aims to increase the emirate's appeal to global investors and offers greater flexibility for buyers. The market is entering a price-discovery phase, with buyers becoming more selective, prioritizing liquidity and developer reputation. Off-plan properties continue to be a strong segment, with total sales volume hitting 13,833 units in June 2026, up 34% month-on-month.

India corner

Institutional investments in Indian real estate surged by 70% year-on-year in the second quarter of calendar year 2026, reaching USD 2.9 billion. Domestic investments more than doubled to USD 1.33 billion, accounting for 46% of total inflows during the quarter.

Foreign investments contributed USD 1.54 billion despite global uncertainties. Chennai and Bengaluru were major drivers, collectively attracting about USD 1.2 billion in investments in the first half of 2026, representing around 27% of total inflows, primarily in the office segment. Capital inflows into Indian real estate reached a six-year high in H1 2026.

Residency-by-investment

Portugal Golden Visa

Country: Portugal

Threshold: €500,000 (fund investment)

What Changed: Citizenship timeline extended from 5 to 10 years for most foreign nationals; 7 years for EU/CPLP nationals, effective July 2025.

Dubai Golden Visa

Country: UAE

Threshold: AED 2,000,000

What Changed: Minimum property value requirement of AED 750,000 removed for two-year visa for sole freehold owners. Off-plan properties now qualify for the AED 2M Golden Visa without a 50% upfront payment, if registered with DLD.

Greece Golden Visa

Country: Greece

Threshold: €400,000 or €800,000

What Changed: In March 2026, the €250,000 tier was eliminated in high-demand zones; new minimums are €400,000 in most areas and €800,000 in prime locations.

Spotlight country

Canada's housing market is showing signs of improving stability as it enters the second half of 2026. In the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), June 2026 saw home sales increase by 9.4% year-over-year, reaching 6,770 transactions, while new listings declined by 12.9%.

The average selling price in the GTA was down 3.9% year-over-year at $1,058,658, though the annual rate of decline has receded. The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) anticipates accelerating transactions and increased buyer competition in the latter half of the year, potentially leading to renewed price growth.

In Metro Vancouver, June home sales hit a 20-month high, jumping 9.6% year-over-year to 2,383 transactions. Despite this, the benchmark HPI only slipped 0.1% in June to $1,099,100, indicating price resilience. RBC Economics noted earlier this week that national housing affordability has improved to its best level in four years.

The contrarian view

Despite ongoing speculation, the U.S. housing market is unlikely to experience a crash in 2026 or 2027, according to the Home Buying Institute. Instead, they foresee a 'flat' market through 2026, followed by a gradual recovery in 2027.

This outlook is supported by factors such as inventory remaining below long-term norms, tighter lending standards compared to 2008, and low foreclosure rates. National Association of REALTORS® Chief Economist Lawrence Yun also predicted minimal home price growth of roughly 2% to 3% for 2026, stating prices are not in danger of a major decline.

What we'll be watching

Reporting + analyst voices: grounded via Google Search at publish time.