German Property Prices Forecast to Rise 3% This Year Amid Supply Shortages
Global real estate markets show mixed signals, with German property prices forecast to rise 3% this year, while US home prices climb 2% year-on-year.
The story
In Germany, property prices are anticipated to continue their noticeable ascent, with the Cooperative Banks Association BVR projecting a 3% increase for the year 2026. This forecast comes as new construction remains sluggish, with demand for new apartments expected to be met only slightly more than halfway, at 58%.
A significant challenge remains the imbalance in supply, as housing is being built in shrinking rural regions while major urban centers grapple with apartment shortages. Meanwhile, across the Atlantic, US single-family home prices, backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, saw a 2% year-on-year increase in April 2026, an upward revision from the 1.8% rise observed in March.
Mortgage rates in the US have seen minor fluctuations, with the average 30-year fixed refinance rate ticking down marginally from 6.73% to 6.72% on June 30, 2026. Experts from Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association anticipate that rates will largely remain above the 6% mark for the remainder of 2026.
G20 + UAE this cycle
| Country | Price Yoy Pct | Prime Yield Pct | Mortgage Rate Pct | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 2.0 | 6.49 | flat | |
| Germany | 3.0 | easing |
UAE corner
The UAE Golden Visa program for property investors saw an important clarification on June 30, 2026. A report confirmed that since February 2026, mortgaged properties, off-plan purchases, and combined-title-deed portfolios now all qualify, provided the total registered property value reaches AED 2,000,000. This change removed the previous requirement for investors to demonstrate at least 50% equity, making the scheme more accessible to international buyers.
Residency-by-investment
UAE Golden Visa
Country: UAE
Threshold: AED 2,000,000
What Changed: As of June 30, 2026, a report confirmed that since February 2026, mortgaged properties and off-plan purchases qualify, removing the previous 50% equity requirement.
Portugal Golden Visa
Country: Portugal
Threshold: €200,000 (cultural) or €500,000 (funds)
What Changed: A revised nationality law came into force on May 19, 2026, extending the citizenship timeline for most non-EU nationals from five years to ten years.
Spotlight country
Germany's real estate market is showing signs of continued price growth, with the Cooperative Banks Association BVR forecasting a 3% increase for the year. However, this positive outlook is tempered by structural challenges.
New construction is not keeping pace with demand, leading to only 58% of new apartment demand being met. The problem is exacerbated by new housing being developed in rural areas with shrinking populations, while major urban centers face acute apartment shortages. This mismatch between where people want to live and where new homes are being built contributes to the ongoing pressure on prices in desirable locations.
What we'll be watching
- The Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decisions, heavily influenced by economic data, remain a key watch point for global real estate markets.
- Investors will continue to monitor future inflation readings and Federal Reserve signals for potential shifts in market direction.
- Weekly pending sales data for the US will offer fresh insights into buyer activity and market momentum.
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