Australian Housing Market Shows Divergence as Sydney, Melbourne Prices Decline Amidst Gains Elsewhere
Global real estate markets continue to exhibit regional disparities, with some major cities facing price softening while others maintain upward momentum.
The story
The Australian housing market is telling a tale of two cities this week, with significant divergence observed across its capitals. Sydney and Melbourne, the nation's two largest metropolitan areas, recorded marginal declines in property values in June, down 0.9% and 0.8% respectively.
This softening is attributed to the compounding effects of recent interest rate hikes, strained affordability, and federal budget changes impacting investor demand. However, the picture brightens elsewhere, with Perth leading the charge with a 1.5% increase, followed by Darwin at 1.5%.
Brisbane saw nearly a 1% rise, while Adelaide gained 0.5% and Hobart 0.9%. This varied performance underscores a market grappling with localized pressures, where robust demand in some regions contrasts with cooling sentiment in the traditionally dominant hubs.
G20 + UAE this cycle
| Country | Price Yoy Pct | Prime Yield Pct | Mortgage Rate Pct | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | Mixed (Sydney -0.9%, Perth +1.5% in June) | 4.0-5.0% | 4.35% | Mixed/Stabilizing |
| Canada | -4.1% (May) | 3.5-4.5% | ~4.0% | Stabilizing |
| China | -3.5% (May) | 3.0-4.0% | 3.06% (Dec 2025) | Easing |
| France | Stable to slightly rising (June) | 3.5-4.5% | Attractive rates (June) | Stable |
| Germany | +3.0% (Q4 2025) | 3.0-4.0% | 3.65-4.06% (May 2026) | Stabilizing |
| India | Varies by city | 2.5-4.0% | 8.5-9.5% | Tightening |
| Indonesia | +0.62% (Q1 2026) | 7.15% (Q3 2025) | 7.0-8.0% | Stabilizing |
| Italy | +4.4% (Q1 2026 transactions) | 3.0-4.0% | Higher (effective June 17) | Tightening |
| Japan | +8.18% (Feb 2026, Tokyo) | 3.5-5.56% | 0.3-1.4% (variable for residents, April 2026) | Tightening |
| Mexico | +8.7% (early 2026) | 5.0-7.0% | Tight affordability (June) | Tightening |
| Russia | +8.70% (Q1 2026) | 6.15% (Q3 2025) | 7.59% (Jan 2026) | Stabilizing |
| Saudi Arabia | Cooling (June) | 5.0-7.0% | 5.0-6.0% | Easing |
| South Africa | Resilient (May) | 7.0-9.0% | 10.50% (Prime Lending Rate) | Flat |
| South Korea | +2.5% (nationwide forecast 2026) | 3.0-4.0% | High (May) | Tightening |
| Turkey | +20-25% (coastal areas, June 4) | 5.0-7.0% | High (due to inflation) | Tightening |
| United Kingdom | -1.0% (May) | 4.0-5.0% | 5.0-6.0% | Easing |
| United States | +0.4% (April 2026) | 5.0-6.0% | 6.5-7.0% | Stabilizing |
| Argentina | Varies by city | 4.0-6.0% | High (inflation-linked) | Tightening |
| Brazil | +23.6% (3 months ending May) | 5.0-7.0% | 10.0-12.0% | Tightening |
| UAE | +6.09% (April 2026, Dubai residential sales) | 6.7-7.0% (Dubai apartments) | 4.5-5.0% (EIBOR) + 1-2% | Stabilizing |
Residency-by-investment
Malta Permanent Residence Programme (MPRP)
Country: Malta
Threshold: €375,000 property purchase or €14,000 annual rent + €60,000 admin fee + €37,000 government contribution + €2,000 donation
What Changed: No new changes reported in the last cycle; clarification on current structure published June 18, 2026, noting the former Citizenship by Investment program is no longer in its original form.
Portugal Golden Visa
Country: Portugal
Threshold: €500,000 in qualifying investment funds (residential real estate excluded since Oct 2023)
What Changed: While the Golden Visa program itself remains, Portugal approved revisions to its nationality law in 2026, extending the general citizenship eligibility period for most applicants from 5 years to 10 years, or 7 years for EU and CPLP nationals.
Spotlight country
South Africa's residential property market is demonstrating resilience, characterized by a bifurcated demand. There's strong interest in affordable, well-located areas, alongside sustained appeal for high-end properties within lifestyle estates.
The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) has maintained the prime lending rate at 10.50% and the repo rate at 7.00%, providing a degree of predictability after a period of rate hikes. Notably, the market is adapting to current challenges, with a significant surge in demand for properties equipped with alternative energy solutions like solar panels. This trend is also fueling interest in homes offering dedicated office spaces, driven by the ongoing work-from-home phenomenon.
What we'll be watching
- Release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes for the June 16-17 meeting in July 2026.
- Federal Reserve FOMC Meetings scheduled for July 28-29, 2026.
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy meeting in August 2026.
- Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) monetary policy meeting on July 8, 2026.
- Upcoming releases of the NAHB Housing Market Index in the United States.
Reporting + analyst voices: grounded via Google Search at publish time.