Oil prices climb on Middle East fears; Treasuries find haven bid as central banks prepare decisions
Oil prices continued their ascent amid supply concerns, while global markets anticipate key interest rate decisions from the Fed, ECB, and BoJ this week.
The story
Brent crude climbed significantly this week, pushing to a five-month high, driven by renewed concerns over Middle East supply disruptions. Reports of Houthi attacks on Saudi energy facilities fueled fears of an oil supply squeeze, contributing to the upward pressure on prices for both Brent and WTI crude.
US Treasury yields experienced a decline across the curve, with the 10-year yield ending the week near 5.0%. This move occurred despite hotter-than-expected inflation data, as investors sought safe-haven assets amidst rising market volatility and concerns surrounding leverage in the AI and technology sectors.
Gold faced sustained pressure through the week, struggling to gain traction as rising oil prices and elevated Treasury yields weighed on the metal. Meanwhile, major central banks, including the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, and Bank of Japan, are all scheduled to announce policy decisions in the coming days, with markets closely watching for signals on future tightening.
Energy and metals
TTF Natural Gas posted a significant weekly gain, contrasting with a slight dip in Henry Hub Natural Gas. WTI Crude and Brent Crude extended their upward trajectory, driven by supply concerns. Gold moved lower, experiencing sustained pressure. Across the yield curve, US 10Y Note, 30Y Bond, 5Y Note, and 3M T-Bill yields all declined. In FX, the Russian ruble strengthened against the dollar, while the Saudi riyal saw dollar appreciation. The Mexican peso and Argentine peso depreciated against the dollar, and the Australian dollar gained ground.
| Instrument | Now | 24h | 7d | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 111.70 USD/bbl | -1.3% | +1.7% | +7.9% | +83.6% |
| WTI Crude | 103.27 USD/bbl | +3.8% | +1.8% | +14.2% | +79.8% |
| TTF Natural Gas | 93.85 EUR/MWh | +4.2% | +7.2% | +29.7% | +233.3% |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | 3.05 USD/MMBtu | +9.1% | -2.1% | +0.8% | -17.3% |
| Gold | 4,007.90 USD/oz | -1.3% | -4.1% | -4.3% | -7.7% |
Currencies vs the dollar
| Pair | Now | 24h | 7d | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CNY | 6.670 | -0.1% | -0.3% | -4.7% |
| USD / JPY | 156.814 | +0.2% | -0.8% | +0.3% |
| EUR / USD | 1.120 | -0.2% | -0.1% | -4.6% |
| USD / ARS | 1,529.000 | +0.1% | +1.1% | +5.3% |
| AUD / USD | 0.704 | +0.3% | +0.9% | +5.1% |
| USD / BRL | 4.996 | -1.1% | -2.0% | -8.8% |
| USD / CAD | 1.400 | +0.0% | -0.8% | +2.3% |
| GBP / USD | 1.337 | -0.2% | +0.3% | -0.7% |
| USD / IDR | 18,050.000 | -0.0% | -0.0% | +8.0% |
| USD / INR | 94.940 | +0.2% | -0.0% | +5.8% |
| USD / KRW | 1,325.400 | -0.0% | -0.6% | -7.8% |
| USD / MXN | 18.648 | -0.4% | +1.1% | +3.7% |
| USD / RUB | 80.436 | -1.8% | -4.1% | +1.2% |
| USD / SAR | 3.752 | +3.2% | +3.2% | +0.1% |
| USD / TRY | 49.689 | -0.1% | +0.3% | +15.7% |
| USD / ZAR | 16.580 | +0.6% | +0.8% | -0.0% |
US Treasury curve
| Maturity | Yield | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-Bill | 4.032% | -4bp | +48bp |
| US 5Y Note | 4.805% | -9bp | +108bp |
| US 10Y Note | 4.988% | -11bp | +82bp |
| US 30Y Bond | 5.315% | -12bp | +48bp |
Central banks this week
Federal Reserve. Expected to keep the federal funds rate steady this week, following a September hike.
Signals a pause in rate hikes for now, but a December increase remains likely given robust economic data.
European Central Bank. Widely expected to leave the deposit rate unchanged this week.
Policymakers are likely taking a pause after raising rates in September, monitoring economic uncertainty and sovereign bond yields in the region.
Bank of Japan. Expected to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1.25% this week.
The focus will be on any guidance regarding the timing of a future rate increase, with December being a potential target.
Bank of Canada. Market sentiment swung in favor of a rate increase this week.
A rate hike is anticipated after firm September CPI data, reflecting a tightening stance.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Identified as highly likely to raise rates this week.
This indicates a continued tightening monetary policy stance.
Bank of England. Market prices a high chance of a rate hike at its November 5 meeting.
An expected tightening move is priced into the market for the near future.
Reserves — who holds what, who is moving
As of 2025, China remains the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves, followed by Japan and Switzerland. The Euro area, India, and Saudi Arabia also maintain substantial foreign exchange reserve holdings. Korea, Rep. and Singapore are among the other significant holders. Specific weekly movements or flow data for these reserves were not available for this period, preventing commentary on recent accumulation or drawdown patterns.
FX reserves — top 15 (excluding gold)
| Country | Reserves USD | As of |
|---|---|---|
| China | $3,424.9B | 2025 |
| Japan | $1,252.6B | 2025 |
| Switzerland | $929.6B | 2025 |
| Euro area | $594.4B | 2025 |
| India | $576.5B | 2025 |
| Saudi Arabia | $459.8B | 2025 |
| Korea, Rep. | $421.9B | 2025 |
| Singapore | $404.9B | 2025 |
| Brazil | $334.3B | 2025 |
| United Arab Emirates | $281.9B | 2025 |
| Thailand | $249.3B | 2025 |
| United States | $243.3B | 2025 |
| Mexico | $239.3B | 2025 |
| Israel | $229.5B | 2025 |
| Poland | $194.5B | 2025 |
Fuel + pump prices
| Fuel | Benchmark / pump | Driver + passthrough |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Gasoil (MGO) | Singapore $1,351.5 per metric ton; Rotterdam $1,446.00 per metric ton. | Global shipping demand and regional supply constraints are influencing prices. |
| Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) | Singapore $963.0 per metric ton; Rotterdam $766.00 per metric ton. | Crude oil prices and refining margins continue to be key determinants for this bunker fuel. |
| WTI Crude | Around $103.27 per barrel. | Middle East supply disruption fears are largely driving the upward movement. |
| Brent Crude | Around $111.7 per barrel. | Geopolitical tensions and concerns about global energy shipments are pushing prices higher. |
What we’ll be watching this week
- October 28: Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision
- October 28: Bank of Canada interest rate decision
- October 29: European Central Bank interest rate decision
- October 29: US Q3 real GDP annualized quarterly rate (initial estimate)
- October 29: US September Core PCE Price Index and PCE Price Index
- October 30: Bank of Japan interest rate decision
- October 30: Eurozone Q3 GDP (initial estimate)
- November 2: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate decision
- November 5: Bank of England (BoE) rate decision
Markets, FX, reserves: fmd-data (). Central bank moves + fuel benchmarks + calendar: grounded via Google Search at publish time.