Weak US Jobs Report Eases Fed Hike Urgency; G7 Releases Oil Reserves Amid Yield Surge
A weaker September US jobs report tempered Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, while global bond yields remained elevated as G7 nations moved to stabilize oil markets.
The story
US 10-year Treasury yields remained elevated around 5.27% this week, even after a weaker September jobs report signaled a cooling labor market. New York Fed President John Williams indicated "no need for urgency" for further rate hikes, causing market expectations for an October rate increase to drop significantly from around 70% to approximately 50%. This shift suggests a potential moderation in the Federal Reserve's near-term tightening path.
Brent crude prices saw volatility, oscillating between $100 and $107 per barrel, driven by concerns over Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Reports of an impending phased U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait eased pressure on oil and broader risk assets later in the week. Additionally, G7 countries announced plans to release up to 100 million barrels of diesel and crude oil reserves to stabilize energy markets.
Gold demonstrated resilience, holding above $4,000 an ounce despite soaring Treasury yields. This strength is largely attributed to a persistent demand premium observed since 2022, fueled by central bank reserve diversification and geopolitical hedging. Nicky Shiels, a metals strategist at MKS PAMP, estimated this premium at around $840 an ounce. China's gold imports for the first eight months of 2026 exceeded 1,000 tonnes, surpassing its total imports for all of 2025.
Energy and metals
Commodity markets saw varied movements, with Henry Hub Natural Gas trading lower over the week, while TTF Natural Gas registered an increase. Gold experienced a downturn, while both Brent Crude and WTI Crude moved lower. In currency markets, the US dollar strengthened against the Saudi Riyal, Mexican Peso, and South African Rand, but weakened against the Korean Won, Russian Ruble, and Euro. Across the Treasury curve, US 10-year and 30-year bond yields climbed, as did 5-year note yields, while 3-month T-bill yields decreased.
| Instrument | Now | 24h | 7d | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 102.25 USD/bbl | -0.1% | -2.0% | -1.2% | +68.0% |
| WTI Crude | 91.11 USD/bbl | -1.9% | -1.4% | +0.8% | +58.7% |
| TTF Natural Gas | 74.76 EUR/MWh | +1.1% | +3.7% | +3.3% | +165.5% |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | 3.04 USD/MMBtu | +2.3% | -5.0% | +0.3% | -17.7% |
| Gold | 4,162.30 USD/oz | -1.0% | -3.7% | -0.6% | -4.1% |
Currencies vs the dollar
| Pair | Now | 24h | 7d | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CNY | 6.705 | +0.0% | -0.1% | -4.2% |
| USD / JPY | 157.830 | -0.1% | +0.2% | +0.9% |
| EUR / USD | 1.126 | +0.1% | -1.0% | -4.2% |
| USD / ARS | 1,524.250 | -0.0% | +0.3% | +5.0% |
| AUD / USD | 0.696 | +0.4% | -0.7% | +3.9% |
| USD / BRL | 5.222 | -0.0% | +0.6% | -4.6% |
| USD / CAD | 1.425 | +0.2% | +0.7% | +4.0% |
| GBP / USD | 1.324 | +0.3% | +0.2% | -1.7% |
| USD / IDR | 17,900.000 | -0.1% | -0.3% | +7.1% |
| USD / INR | 96.300 | +0.1% | +0.5% | +7.3% |
| USD / KRW | 1,342.510 | -1.3% | -1.8% | -6.6% |
| USD / MXN | 18.145 | -0.9% | +2.3% | +0.9% |
| USD / RUB | 83.725 | +0.4% | -1.5% | +5.3% |
| USD / SAR | 3.754 | +3.2% | +3.1% | +0.2% |
| USD / TRY | 49.120 | +0.0% | +0.3% | +14.4% |
| USD / ZAR | 16.642 | -0.3% | +1.8% | +0.3% |
US Treasury curve
| Maturity | Yield | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-Bill | 3.993% | -8bp | +45bp |
| US 5Y Note | 5.055% | +5bp | +133bp |
| US 10Y Note | 5.277% | +9bp | +111bp |
| US 30Y Bond | 5.630% | +13bp | +79bp |
Central banks this week
Federal Reserve. New York Fed President John Williams indicated 'no need for urgency' for further rate hikes.
This statement caused market expectations for an October rate hike to drop significantly, suggesting a potential moderation in the Fed's near-term tightening path.
European Central Bank. Raised all three key interest rates by 25 basis points in September.
The deposit facility rate now stands at 2.50%, reflecting ongoing efforts to address inflation within the Euro area.
Bank of Japan. Raised its policy rate to 1.25% in September, a 31-year high, on a 7-2 vote.
Governor Ueda did not rule out further rate increases, signaling a continued shift towards tighter monetary policy in Japan.
Bank of England. Held its Bank Rate at 3.75% in September.
This decision indicates a pause in tightening, with no further rate moves expected until at least November 5.
People's Bank of China. Announced fresh support measures in September.
These measures aim to bolster economic activity and liquidity within the Chinese economy.
Reserves — who holds what, who is moving
As of 2025, China remained the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves, followed by Japan and Switzerland. The Euro area, India, Saudi Arabia, Korea, and Singapore also held substantial foreign exchange reserves. Specific weekly flow data for gold or foreign exchange reserves were not available to indicate recent accumulation or drawdown patterns by these nations.
FX reserves — top 15 (excluding gold)
| Country | Reserves USD | As of |
|---|---|---|
| China | $3,424.9B | 2025 |
| Japan | $1,252.6B | 2025 |
| Switzerland | $929.6B | 2025 |
| Euro area | $594.4B | 2025 |
| India | $576.5B | 2025 |
| Saudi Arabia | $459.8B | 2025 |
| Korea, Rep. | $421.9B | 2025 |
| Singapore | $404.9B | 2025 |
| Brazil | $334.3B | 2025 |
| United Arab Emirates | $281.9B | 2025 |
| Thailand | $249.3B | 2025 |
| United States | $243.3B | 2025 |
| Mexico | $239.3B | 2025 |
| Israel | $229.5B | 2025 |
| Poland | $194.5B | 2025 |
Fuel + pump prices
| Fuel | Benchmark / pump | Driver + passthrough |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol (Gasoline) | Delhi: ₹102.12 per litre (Oct 4, 2026); London: 174.71p per litre (Oct 2, 2026); New York City: $4.4742 per gallon (Oct 4, 2026, AAA average). | Retail prices in Delhi remained stable, while London saw continued increases, and New York City experienced a slight weekly dip. |
| Diesel | Delhi: ₹95.20 per litre (Oct 4, 2026); London: £2.00 per litre (Oct 2, 2026); New York City: $6.5196 per gallon (Oct 4, 2026, AAA average). | Delhi's diesel prices were stable, while London's average diesel price hit a record £2.00 per litre, with New York City also showing elevated prices. |
| LPG (Domestic) | Delhi (14.2 kg cylinder): ₹942.00 (Oct 4, 2026); London: 1.016 GBP per litre (Oct 2, 2026). | Domestic LPG prices in Delhi remained unchanged, while London saw a slight increase. |
| LPG (Commercial) | Delhi (19 kg cylinder): ₹2,810.00 (Oct 4, 2026). | Commercial LPG cylinder prices in Delhi increased, following a previous hike in September. |
| Marine Bunker Fuel | Singapore VLSFO: $876.5 per MT (Oct 2, 2026); Singapore MGO: $1,323.0 per MT (Oct 2, 2026). | Bunker fuel prices in Singapore for both VLSFO and MGO were reported as of early October. |
What we’ll be watching this week
- OPEC Meeting (October 4)
- India: RBI monetary policy committee meeting (October 7)
- US: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes (October 7)
- US: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary) (October 8)
- Japan: BoJ Interest Rate Decision (October 28)
- Canada: BoC Interest Rate Decision (October 28)
- Euro area: ECB Interest Rate Decision (October 29)
- Australia: RBA Monetary Policy Meeting (November 3)
Markets, FX, reserves: fmd-data (). Central bank moves + fuel benchmarks + calendar: grounded via Google Search at publish time.