Gold and Energy Prices Surge Amid Middle East Tensions and Treasury Market Focus
Gold and Brent Crude surged this week; markets now eye Jackson Hole and US PCE data for policy cues.
The story
The US Treasury initiated buybacks to soothe bond jitters, leading to a temporary retrenchment in global yields from multi-decade peaks. However, the long-end 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high above 5.30% earlier in the week. The Treasury's unexpected announcement of upsizing its buyback program in the long-end sector, outside of quarterly refunding announcements, indicates concern over rising long bond yields.
Brent crude rose to its highest level in almost four weeks near $95 after President Trump threatened Iran with economic warfare. This surge was attributed to Middle East supply concerns amidst the US-Iran impasse and new US actions announced against the Iranian economy. Limited traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to keep energy prices elevated.
Gold finished the week modestly higher, supported by a softer dollar and fading Fed rate-hike expectations. Global central bank gold purchases reached 244 tonnes in Q1 2026, the highest quarterly total since Q4 2024, with China adding 8 tonnes in April. FOMC minutes later revealed officials saw a need for rate hikes if inflation does not cool, citing inflation risks skewed to the upside due to AI.
Energy and metals
TTF Natural Gas and Brent Crude moved higher this week, with Gold extending its grind higher. Henry Hub Natural Gas also showed an upward trend. On the currency front, the USD / SAR moved higher, while the USD / KRW moved lower. Both the AUD / USD and EUR / USD gained ground, while the USD / BRL and USD / ZAR saw declines. In the Treasury market, US 10Y Note yields advanced, as did US 5Y Note yields. The US 3M T-Bill yield also moved higher, with the US 30Y Bond yield seeing a slight increase.
| Instrument | Now | 24h | 7d | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 94.39 USD/bbl | +0.7% | +6.6% | +4.7% | +55.1% |
| WTI Crude | 87.06 USD/bbl | — | — | — | — |
| TTF Natural Gas | 66.00 EUR/MWh | +1.1% | +7.5% | +11.7% | +134.4% |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | 2.81 USD/MMBtu | +2.9% | +2.9% | +2.3% | -23.7% |
| Gold | 4,680.60 USD/oz | +3.6% | +6.9% | +15.6% | +8.2% |
Currencies vs the dollar
| Pair | Now | 24h | 7d | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CNY | 6.721 | -0.0% | -0.3% | -3.9% |
| USD / JPY | 158.940 | +0.0% | -0.3% | +1.6% |
| EUR / USD | 1.168 | -0.1% | +1.2% | -0.6% |
| USD / ARS | 1,499.000 | +0.1% | +0.5% | +3.3% |
| AUD / USD | 0.718 | +0.8% | +1.3% | +7.1% |
| USD / BRL | 5.137 | -1.1% | -1.2% | -6.2% |
| USD / CAD | 1.376 | -0.1% | -0.8% | +0.5% |
| GBP / USD | 1.365 | +0.0% | +0.8% | +1.3% |
| USD / IDR | 17,690.000 | -0.4% | -0.8% | +5.9% |
| USD / INR | 95.710 | -0.1% | +0.3% | +6.6% |
| USD / KRW | 1,383.900 | -0.5% | -2.2% | -3.8% |
| USD / MXN | 16.945 | -0.0% | -0.4% | -5.8% |
| USD / RUB | 82.625 | -0.2% | -0.5% | +3.9% |
| USD / SAR | 3.754 | +3.0% | +3.8% | +0.2% |
| USD / TRY | 48.035 | -0.0% | +0.4% | +11.8% |
| USD / ZAR | 16.003 | -0.6% | -1.2% | -3.5% |
US Treasury curve
| Maturity | Yield | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-Bill | 3.710% | +1bp | +16bp |
| US 5Y Note | 4.424% | +6bp | +70bp |
| US 10Y Note | 4.738% | +4bp | +57bp |
| US 30Y Bond | 5.276% | +1bp | +44bp |
Central banks this week
Federal Reserve (Fed). FOMC minutes revealed officials saw a need for rate hikes if inflation does not cool, citing inflation risks skewed to the upside due to AI.
This indicates a continued hawkish stance and a readiness to tighten monetary policy if inflationary pressures persist.
European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB left policy rates unchanged in July after a June hike, emphasizing the need to assess incoming inflation data and energy-related price pressures.
Markets are pricing in a near certain rate hike for the upcoming meeting, suggesting expectations of further tightening.
Bank of England (BoE). The BoE held policy rates unchanged in July, with three dissents favoring a hike, maintaining a hawkish tone amid upside risks to cooling inflation.
This signals a cautious but vigilant approach, with a segment of policymakers leaning towards further tightening.
People's Bank of China (PBoC). Policymakers indicated a rate cut is on the horizon, with weak Q2 growth potentially being a tipping point.
This suggests a potential easing of monetary policy to support economic growth.
Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The RBI unanimously voted to hold rates steady in August despite a weakening rupee and inflation exceeding its target range.
This indicates a patient approach, possibly balancing inflation concerns with supporting economic stability.
Reserves — who holds what, who is moving
China continues to hold the largest foreign exchange reserves, significantly outpacing other major economies. Japan and Switzerland maintain the next largest holdings, followed by the Euro area, India, Saudi Arabia, Korea, Rep., and Singapore. The substantial size of these reserves underscores the continued reliance on the dollar system for global trade and financial stability, even as some nations might seek diversification strategies.
FX reserves — top 15 (excluding gold)
| Country | Reserves USD | As of |
|---|---|---|
| China | $3,424.9B | 2025 |
| Japan | $1,252.6B | 2025 |
| Switzerland | $929.6B | 2025 |
| Euro area | $594.4B | 2025 |
| India | $576.5B | 2025 |
| Saudi Arabia | $459.8B | 2025 |
| Korea, Rep. | $421.9B | 2025 |
| Singapore | $404.9B | 2025 |
| Brazil | $334.3B | 2025 |
| United Arab Emirates | $281.9B | 2025 |
| Thailand | $249.3B | 2025 |
| United States | $243.3B | 2025 |
| Mexico | $239.3B | 2025 |
| Israel | $229.5B | 2025 |
| Poland | $194.5B | 2025 |
Fuel + pump prices
| Fuel | Benchmark / pump | Driver + passthrough |
|---|---|---|
| VLSFO (Very Low Sulfur Fuel Oil) | Singapore: $831/mt | Prices remain elevated due to restricted Gulf supply and strained refining capacity. |
| LSMGO (Low Sulfur Marine Gasoil) | Fujairah: $1,404/mt | Tight distillate markets and refinery constraints are keeping gasoil prices exceptionally elevated. |
| HSFO (High Sulfur Fuel Oil) | Singapore: $647/mt | HSFO remains cheaper, reopening a meaningful cost advantage for scrubber-equipped ships. |
| LNG Bunker | Singapore: $1,340/mt | LNG prices have stabilized in Singapore, while Rotterdam has moved sharply higher. |
What we’ll be watching this week
- August 25: Reserve Bank of Australia Meeting Minutes
- August 26: US GDP and PCE data
- August 27: Jackson Hole Economic Symposium begins
- August 27: Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh speech at Jackson Hole
- August 28: Japanese CPI data for Tokyo
- August 28: Canada's GDP
- August 25-28: China's National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting in Beijing
Markets, FX, reserves: fmd-data (). Central bank moves + fuel benchmarks + calendar: grounded via Google Search at publish time.