Gold Surges on Weak Jobs Report; Oil Dips as Fed Maintains Hawkish Tone
Gold saw its best week since January amid softer rate hike bets, while markets anticipate US CPI and retail sales data next week.
The story
The Federal Reserve held its policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in July, though three regional presidents dissented, favoring a 25 basis point hike. This hawkish split within the FOMC suggests September could be a critical meeting for rate decisions. Lower US Treasury yields followed a weaker-than-expected ADP private payrolls report for July, which added only 44,000 jobs, the weakest reading in six months, easing some of the earlier hawkish pricing.
Gold prices rose for four consecutive sessions, reaching their highest level since June. This ascent was primarily driven by the softer rate-hike expectations stemming from the weak ADP payrolls report and a tentative deal to ease shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, Brent crude oil prices dropped 7%, settling lower after the tentative deal to de-escalate Middle East shipping risks, which cooled inflation outlooks.
Despite the Fed's hawkish undertones, a confirmed currency intervention briefly pulled the dollar broadly lower against major currencies mid-week, applying some stress on Asian central banks before the dollar regained ground by Friday. The Bank of Japan continues to face pressure from a weakening yen, trading at lows not seen since 1986, exacerbated by a sharp rise in natural gas prices impacting imported inflation. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank and Bank of England also kept their policy rates unchanged.
Energy and metals
Gold extended its significant upward movement this week, contrasting with a notable decline in crude oil benchmarks. WTI Crude and Brent Crude both moved lower, while TTF Natural Gas and Henry Hub Natural Gas also saw declines. In foreign exchange, the Russian ruble strengthened against the US dollar. Conversely, the South African rand, Japanese yen, Korean won, Mexican peso, and Indonesian rupiah all gained ground against the dollar. Across the Treasury curve, US 10-year and 30-year bond yields moved lower, while US 3-month T-bill yields edged higher. US 5-year note yields also declined. The yield curve experienced some flattening at the short end and steepening at the long end.
| Instrument | Now | 24h | 7d | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 83.55 USD/bbl | +1.3% | -7.3% | -7.3% | +37.3% |
| WTI Crude | 78.18 USD/bbl | +1.2% | -7.7% | -7.7% | +36.2% |
| TTF Natural Gas | 55.54 EUR/MWh | -0.4% | -6.0% | -6.0% | +97.2% |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | 2.66 USD/MMBtu | +0.8% | -3.1% | -3.1% | -27.8% |
| Gold | 4,399.70 USD/oz | +3.7% | +8.7% | +8.7% | +1.7% |
Currencies vs the dollar
| Pair | Now | 24h | 7d | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CNY | 6.748 | -0.0% | -0.0% | -3.5% |
| USD / JPY | 157.745 | -0.4% | -1.5% | +0.9% |
| EUR / USD | 1.156 | +0.3% | +0.3% | -1.6% |
| USD / ARS | 1,498.500 | -0.1% | +0.6% | +3.2% |
| AUD / USD | 0.707 | +0.5% | +0.4% | +5.6% |
| USD / BRL | 5.084 | -0.7% | +0.1% | -7.2% |
| USD / CAD | 1.394 | -0.5% | -0.5% | +1.8% |
| GBP / USD | 1.349 | +0.3% | +0.0% | +0.2% |
| USD / IDR | 17,885.000 | -0.2% | -0.8% | +7.0% |
| USD / INR | 95.200 | -0.1% | -0.2% | +6.0% |
| USD / KRW | 1,415.700 | -0.5% | -1.4% | -1.5% |
| USD / MXN | 17.116 | -0.5% | -1.3% | -4.8% |
| USD / RUB | 82.200 | -1.0% | +3.1% | +3.4% |
| USD / SAR | 3.755 | +3.1% | -0.0% | +0.2% |
| USD / TRY | 47.691 | +0.1% | +0.4% | +11.0% |
| USD / ZAR | 16.127 | -1.3% | -2.0% | -2.8% |
US Treasury curve
| Maturity | Yield | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-Bill | 3.710% | +3bp | +16bp |
| US 5Y Note | 4.362% | -10bp | +64bp |
| US 10Y Note | 4.660% | -8bp | +50bp |
| US 30Y Bond | 5.211% | -6bp | +37bp |
Central banks this week
Federal Reserve. Held policy rate steady at 3.50%-3.75%, but three regional presidents dissented, favoring a 25 basis point hike.
The hawkish split within the FOMC raises the probability of a September rate hike and signals deepening internal divisions.
Bank of England. Stood pat on rates.
Internal policy divisions have widened, with some members concerned that renewed Middle East conflict could send energy and commodity prices soaring, advocating for an immediate hike.
Bank of Japan. Stood pat on rates.
The yen remains at lows not seen since 1986, and a sharp rise in natural gas prices is increasing pressure on imported inflation, testing the BoJ's normalization process.
European Central Bank. Stood pat on rates.
Rebounding energy prices prompted the ECB to begin precautionary hikes, with headline euro area HICP rising in July.
Reserves — who holds what, who is moving
The latest available data for 2025 shows China maintaining its position as the largest holder of foreign exchange reserves, followed by Japan and Switzerland. The Euro area, India, Saudi Arabia, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore also feature among the top holders. This static snapshot indicates the established distribution of global FX reserves, with no recent flow data provided to signal shifts in accumulation or drawdowns among these nations or broader implications for dollar-system trust.
FX reserves — top 15 (excluding gold)
| Country | Reserves USD | As of |
|---|---|---|
| China | $3,424.9B | 2025 |
| Japan | $1,252.6B | 2025 |
| Switzerland | $929.6B | 2025 |
| Euro area | $594.4B | 2025 |
| India | $576.5B | 2025 |
| Saudi Arabia | $459.8B | 2025 |
| Korea, Rep. | $421.9B | 2025 |
| Singapore | $404.9B | 2025 |
| Brazil | $334.3B | 2025 |
| United Arab Emirates | $281.9B | 2025 |
| Thailand | $249.3B | 2025 |
| United States | $243.3B | 2025 |
| Mexico | $239.3B | 2025 |
| Israel | $229.5B | 2025 |
| Poland | $194.5B | 2025 |
Fuel + pump prices
| Fuel | Benchmark / pump | Driver + passthrough |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol (Gasoline) | Mumbai: ₹111.31/litre (Aug 9, 2026); Delhi: ₹102.12/litre (Aug 9, 2026); London: 160.9p/litre (Aug 3, 2026). | Prices in the UK have risen sharply since late February 2026 due to Middle East conflict disruptions, with retailers passing on higher wholesale costs. |
| Diesel | Mumbai: ₹97.83/litre (Aug 9, 2026); Delhi: ₹95.20/litre (Aug 9, 2026); London: 180.5p/litre (Aug 3, 2026); New York City: $1.52/litre (Aug 3, 2026). | Diesel prices in the UK remain higher than pre-Middle East conflict levels, with wholesale cost increases being passed to consumers. |
| LPG (Domestic) | New Delhi: ₹942/14.2 kg cylinder (Aug 9, 2026). | Domestic LPG prices in Delhi have remained unchanged despite commercial LPG cylinder price revisions. |
| Marine Gasoil (MGO) | Singapore (0.5%S): $1139.50 (Aug 8, 2026). | Marine fuel prices in Singapore are influenced by global market reporting and the port's role as a major bunkering hub. |
| Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) | Singapore: $821.50 (Aug 8, 2026). | Prices for VLSFO in Singapore reflect daily market assessments in this key Asia-Pacific bunkering hub. |
| High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HFO) | Singapore (380cst): $588.50 (Aug 8, 2026). | HFO prices in Singapore are part of the broader marine fuel market, with assessments updated daily based on market activity. |
What we’ll be watching this week
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision (Tuesday)
- US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July (Wednesday, August 12)
- US Producer Price Index (PPI) for July (Thursday, August 13)
- US Retail Sales for July (Friday, August 14)
- University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Preliminary) (Friday, August 14)
- Bank of Japan (BoJ) Summary of Opinions
Markets, FX, reserves: fmd-data (). Central bank moves + fuel benchmarks + calendar: grounded via Google Search at publish time.