Fed Holds Rates Amid Volatile Oil, Pushing Treasury Yields Higher; Gold Gains
The Federal Reserve held rates, impacting Treasury yields amid oil volatility; US jobs report is due next week.
The story
The Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, a decision that intensified market concerns regarding the Fed's ability to curb inflation. This sentiment pushed 30-year Treasury yields to a 19-year high, with US ten-year Treasury yields also rising above 4.7%, the highest since January 2025. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh reaffirmed the committee's commitment to restoring price stability.
Oil markets experienced significant volatility, with Brent crude prices briefly surging past $100 a barrel following Houthi attacks on Saudi oil tankers and escalating Middle East tensions. This geopolitical unrest rekindled inflation fears, even as WTI crude saw a slight easing from its peak highs but remained elevated around US$85 per barrel. Energy market fluctuations were a primary focus for global financial participants this week.
Gold prices consolidated near the $4,025–$4,040 support zone ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. Concurrently, central banks globally continue to add gold to their reserves, a move widely interpreted as a long-term diversification strategy away from the dollar within the global financial system. The European Central Bank kept policy rates on hold but acknowledged the full impact of the energy shock is yet to materialize, leaving a September hike as a possibility.
Energy and metals
Commodity markets saw a broad decline this week, with Brent Crude and WTI Crude both moving lower. TTF Natural Gas and Henry Hub Natural Gas also eased from previous levels. In contrast, Gold extended its quiet grind higher. Across foreign exchange, the USD/JPY moved lower, while the USD/SAR advanced. Both EUR/USD and GBP/USD strengthened against the dollar, while the USD/KRW and USD/INR moved lower. In the Treasury market, longer-dated yields on the US 10Y Note and US 30Y Bond moved higher, while US 3M T-Bill yields declined. US 5Y Note yields also saw an increase.
| Instrument | Now | 24h | 7d | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 90.12 USD/bbl | +1.2% | -6.9% | +23.6% | +48.1% |
| WTI Crude | 84.67 USD/bbl | +1.3% | -5.2% | +21.8% | +47.5% |
| TTF Natural Gas | 59.07 EUR/MWh | +1.5% | -7.1% | +36.0% | +109.8% |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | 2.75 USD/MMBtu | -0.4% | -4.3% | -16.1% | -25.5% |
| Gold | 4,107.00 USD/oz | +0.2% | +1.0% | +2.1% | -5.1% |
Currencies vs the dollar
| Pair | Now | 24h | 7d | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CNY | 6.750 | -0.1% | -0.3% | -3.5% |
| USD / JPY | 157.400 | -1.7% | -3.8% | +0.6% |
| EUR / USD | 1.153 | +0.0% | +1.3% | -1.9% |
| USD / ARS | 1,485.000 | -0.3% | -0.3% | +2.3% |
| AUD / USD | 0.703 | +0.0% | +0.4% | +4.9% |
| USD / BRL | 5.075 | -0.1% | -0.4% | -7.3% |
| USD / CAD | 1.402 | +0.0% | -0.5% | +2.4% |
| GBP / USD | 1.348 | +0.2% | +1.3% | +0.1% |
| USD / IDR | 17,990.000 | -0.3% | +0.2% | +7.7% |
| USD / INR | 95.390 | -0.3% | -1.2% | +6.3% |
| USD / KRW | 1,436.600 | +1.1% | -1.5% | -0.1% |
| USD / MXN | 17.326 | -0.1% | -1.1% | -3.6% |
| USD / RUB | 79.175 | -0.7% | +1.1% | -0.4% |
| USD / SAR | 3.755 | +0.0% | +3.4% | +0.2% |
| USD / TRY | 47.505 | +0.0% | +0.4% | +10.6% |
| USD / ZAR | 16.544 | +0.3% | -1.0% | -0.3% |
US Treasury curve
| Maturity | Yield | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-Bill | 3.682% | -12bp | +14bp |
| US 5Y Note | 4.460% | +3bp | +74bp |
| US 10Y Note | 4.745% | +7bp | +58bp |
| US 30Y Bond | 5.275% | +11bp | +44bp |
Central banks this week
Federal Reserve. Held interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting.
Markets expressed increasing concern about the Fed's ability to lower inflation, contributing to higher longer-term Treasury yields.
European Central Bank. Kept policy rates on hold.
President Christine Lagarde warned that the full effects of the energy shock have yet to manifest, leaving the possibility of a September rate hike open.
Bank of England. Left the Bank Rate unchanged at 3.75%.
Governor Andrew Bailey indicated the bank was not moving towards an interest rate hike, despite some dissenting votes for an increase.
Bank of Japan. Expected to maintain its policy rate at 1%.
This continues a monetary normalization process that is slower than other developed economies, with yen depreciation remaining a key concern.
Reserves — who holds what, who is moving
The provided data for this week does not include specific country-level gold flows or changes in foreign exchange reserves for top holders. While general trends indicate central banks globally are adding gold as part of a long-term diversification strategy away from the dollar, specific, dated movements for individual countries this week are not available in the provided facts. China, Japan, and Switzerland remain the largest holders of foreign exchange reserves as of 2025, with no recent shifts in their holdings reported.
FX reserves — top 15 (excluding gold)
| Country | Reserves USD | As of |
|---|---|---|
| China | $3,424.9B | 2025 |
| Japan | $1,252.6B | 2025 |
| Switzerland | $929.6B | 2025 |
| Euro area | $594.4B | 2025 |
| India | $576.5B | 2025 |
| Saudi Arabia | $459.8B | 2025 |
| Korea, Rep. | $421.9B | 2025 |
| Singapore | $404.9B | 2025 |
| Brazil | $334.3B | 2025 |
| United Arab Emirates | $281.9B | 2025 |
| Thailand | $249.3B | 2025 |
| United States | $243.3B | 2025 |
| Mexico | $239.3B | 2025 |
| Israel | $229.5B | 2025 |
| Poland | $194.5B | 2025 |
Fuel + pump prices
| Fuel | Benchmark / pump | Driver + passthrough |
|---|---|---|
| MGO 0.5%S (Marine Gasoil) | Singapore: $1225.50 (Aug 1, 2026) | Global crude oil price volatility continues to influence marine gasoil costs, with recent Middle East tensions contributing to price fluctuations. |
| VLSFO (Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil) | Singapore: $837.50 (Aug 1, 2026) | Prices for VLSFO in major bunkering hubs like Singapore reflect shifts in crude markets and regional supply dynamics. |
| HFO 380 (High Sulphur Fuel Oil) | Singapore: $582.00 (Aug 1, 2026) | High sulphur fuel oil prices are reacting to broader crude trends and changes in refinery output and demand patterns. |
What we’ll be watching this week
- Tuesday, August 4: US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)
- Friday, August 7: US Nonfarm Payrolls report
Markets, FX, reserves: fmd-data (). Central bank moves + fuel benchmarks + calendar: grounded via Google Search at publish time.