Energy Markets Climb on Geopolitical Concerns; Hawkish Fed Signals Pressure Gold, Boost Yields
Energy prices advanced amid persistent geopolitical risks, while US CPI and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony loom next week.
The story
Persistent Middle East tensions continued to propel energy markets higher this week. Crude oil surged as the US-Iran situation escalated, with Brent Crude approaching $80 per barrel and WTI Crude climbing above $74 per barrel. This geopolitical backdrop fueled inflation expectations and weighed on import-reliant economies like Japan, where stock markets declined.
US Treasury yields advanced across most maturities, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield increasing. This movement followed the release of the Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes, which indicated growing concerns among policymakers over sticky inflation. Some officials even advocated for an immediate rate hike, while most supported removing the previous "easing bias" from the policy statement.
Gold experienced a volatile week, facing pressure from elevated US Treasury yields and a resilient US dollar, which held firm around 101. The hawkish signals from the Fed's minutes limited gold's safe-haven appeal and upward momentum. Despite this, central banks globally have consistently increased their gold holdings for twenty consecutive months, establishing a long-term floor for the precious metal.
Energy and metals
TTF Natural Gas surged higher this week, while Brent Crude and WTI Crude both advanced significantly. In contrast, Henry Hub Natural Gas eased. Gold saw minimal movement, holding its ground. Across foreign exchange markets, the Korean won strengthened against the dollar, and the Brazilian real also moved higher. Conversely, the Saudi riyal and Indonesian rupiah both firmed against the dollar, as did the South African rand. The Russian ruble softened. US Treasury yields broadly climbed, with the 10-year, 30-year, 5-year, and 3-month instruments all moving higher.
| Instrument | Now | 24h | 7d | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 76.01 USD/bbl | -0.4% | +5.9% | +4.2% | +24.9% |
| WTI Crude | 71.41 USD/bbl | -0.9% | +4.0% | +2.7% | +24.4% |
| TTF Natural Gas | 48.66 EUR/MWh | -2.9% | +10.5% | +12.0% | +72.8% |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | 2.94 USD/MMBtu | -2.4% | -8.0% | -10.2% | -20.2% |
| Gold | 4,113.70 USD/oz | -0.4% | +0.0% | +2.3% | -4.9% |
Currencies vs the dollar
| Pair | Now | 24h | 7d | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CNY | 6.767 | -0.4% | -0.3% | -3.3% |
| USD / JPY | 161.672 | -0.4% | +0.1% | +3.4% |
| EUR / USD | 1.142 | -0.1% | -0.0% | -2.8% |
| USD / ARS | 1,487.000 | -0.0% | -0.1% | +2.4% |
| AUD / USD | 0.696 | +0.2% | +0.3% | +3.8% |
| USD / BRL | 5.107 | -0.5% | -2.2% | -6.7% |
| USD / CAD | 1.415 | -0.1% | -0.4% | +3.3% |
| GBP / USD | 1.340 | -0.1% | +0.4% | -0.5% |
| USD / IDR | 18,064.000 | -0.3% | +1.6% | +8.1% |
| USD / INR | 95.370 | -0.0% | -0.2% | +6.2% |
| USD / KRW | 1,498.870 | -0.5% | -2.8% | +4.2% |
| USD / MXN | 17.462 | -0.4% | -0.1% | -2.9% |
| USD / RUB | 76.925 | +0.9% | -0.7% | -3.2% |
| USD / SAR | 3.754 | +3.3% | +2.5% | +0.2% |
| USD / TRY | 46.977 | +0.1% | +0.5% | +9.4% |
| USD / ZAR | 16.347 | +0.2% | +0.7% | -1.4% |
US Treasury curve
| Maturity | Yield | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-Bill | 3.695% | +3bp | +15bp |
| US 5Y Note | 4.308% | +8bp | +59bp |
| US 10Y Note | 4.569% | +8bp | +41bp |
| US 30Y Bond | 5.071% | +9bp | +23bp |
Central banks this week
Federal Reserve. Released June FOMC Minutes
Revealed growing concerns over sticky inflation and a bias towards removing easing language, impacting rate hike expectations.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand. Raised its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%
Signaled further tightening may be needed due to persistent domestic inflation pressures and stronger economic growth expectations.
Federal Reserve. Governor Christopher J. Waller participated in a policy panel discussion on July 6
Contributed to the ongoing dialogue regarding monetary policy direction amidst changing global economic conditions.
Reserves — who holds what, who is moving
China continues to hold the largest foreign exchange reserves globally, followed by Japan and Switzerland, reflecting their significant roles in the international financial system. India and the Euro area also maintain substantial reserve balances. Saudi Arabia and the Russian Federation hold considerable FX reserves, indicating their economic scale. Korea, Rep. also features among the top holders. These substantial holdings underscore the ongoing importance of major global currencies in national balance sheets.
FX reserves — top 15 (excluding gold)
| Country | Reserves USD | As of |
|---|---|---|
| China | $3,264.8B | 2024 |
| Japan | $1,159.7B | 2024 |
| Switzerland | $822.1B | 2024 |
| India | $569.5B | 2024 |
| Euro area | $546.0B | 2024 |
| Saudi Arabia | $436.8B | 2024 |
| Russian Federation | $412.7B | 2024 |
| Korea, Rep. | $409.5B | 2024 |
| Singapore | $365.5B | 2024 |
| Brazil | $318.9B | 2024 |
| United Arab Emirates | $231.7B | 2024 |
| United States | $227.8B | 2024 |
| Mexico | $221.9B | 2024 |
| Thailand | $217.3B | 2024 |
| Israel | $214.5B | 2024 |
Fuel + pump prices
| Fuel | Benchmark / pump | Driver + passthrough |
|---|---|---|
| Marine Gas Oil (MGO 0.5%S) | Singapore: $978.50 (July 11, 2026) | Prices were influenced by global shipping demand and fluctuations in crude oil benchmarks. |
| Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) | Singapore: $676.00 (July 11, 2026) | Global shipping activity and the underlying crude oil market continued to drive VLSFO prices. |
| High Sulphur Fuel Oil (HFO 380) | Singapore: $478.50 (July 11, 2026) | Industrial demand and broader crude oil price trends impacted HFO 380 benchmarks. |
What we’ll be watching this week
- July 14: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release
- July 14: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh congressional testimony (House Financial Services Committee)
- July 15: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh congressional testimony (Senate Banking Committee)
- July 15: Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision
- July 17: US Consumer Sentiment release
Markets, FX, reserves: fmd-data (). Central bank moves + fuel benchmarks + calendar: grounded via Google Search at publish time.