Oil Surges on Middle East Tensions; Hawkish Fed Minutes Weigh on Gold
Crude oil jumped amid renewed Middle East conflict, while US CPI and Fed Chair Warsh's testimony headline the economic calendar next week.
The story
Renewed US-Iran conflict near the Strait of Hormuz propelled crude oil prices higher this week, fueling inflation expectations. Brent Crude approached $80 per barrel, and WTI Crude moved above $74 per barrel, reflecting market concerns over potential supply disruptions. This geopolitical escalation has been a primary driver across energy markets.
The Federal Reserve's June FOMC minutes, released this week, revealed a hawkish tilt among policymakers. Some officials considered an immediate rate hike, and a majority favored removing the "easing bias," indicating a readiness to tighten policy if inflation persists. This stance reversed earlier market optimism for rate cuts, which had followed a weaker nonfarm payrolls report.
Gold initially saw a rebound after the soft nonfarm payrolls data, ending a four-week losing streak, but subsequently declined as the hawkish Fed minutes and a firmer US dollar weighed on non-yielding assets. US 10-year Treasury yields climbed from 4.49% to 4.77%, further pressuring gold prices.
Energy and metals
Commodity markets saw notable movements this week, with Brent Crude and WTI Crude advancing significantly due to geopolitical tensions. TTF Natural Gas also moved higher, while Henry Hub Natural Gas declined. Gold experienced a slight dip after an initial rebound. In foreign exchange, the USD gained against the Saudi Riyal and Indonesian Rupiah, while it eased against the Korean Won and Brazilian Real. Across the US Treasury curve, yields on the 3M T-Bill, 5Y Note, 10Y Note, and 30Y Bond all increased, reflecting broader market sentiment and central bank signals.
| Instrument | Now | 24h | 7d | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 76.01 USD/bbl | -0.4% | +5.9% | +4.2% | +24.9% |
| WTI Crude | 71.41 USD/bbl | -0.9% | +4.0% | +2.7% | +24.4% |
| TTF Natural Gas | 48.66 EUR/MWh | -2.9% | +10.5% | +12.0% | +72.8% |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | 2.94 USD/MMBtu | -2.4% | -8.0% | -10.2% | -20.2% |
| Gold | 4,104.10 USD/oz | -0.6% | -0.2% | +2.0% | -5.1% |
Currencies vs the dollar
| Pair | Now | 24h | 7d | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CNY | 6.773 | -0.3% | -0.2% | -3.2% |
| USD / JPY | 161.672 | -0.4% | +0.1% | +3.4% |
| EUR / USD | 1.142 | -0.1% | -0.0% | -2.8% |
| USD / ARS | 1,487.000 | -0.0% | -0.1% | +2.4% |
| AUD / USD | 0.696 | +0.2% | +0.6% | +3.8% |
| USD / BRL | 5.107 | -0.5% | -2.2% | -6.7% |
| USD / CAD | 1.415 | -0.1% | -0.3% | +3.3% |
| GBP / USD | 1.340 | -0.1% | +0.4% | -0.5% |
| USD / IDR | 18,050.000 | -0.4% | +1.5% | +8.0% |
| USD / INR | 95.370 | -0.0% | -0.2% | +6.2% |
| USD / KRW | 1,498.700 | -0.5% | -2.8% | +4.2% |
| USD / MXN | 17.462 | -0.4% | -0.1% | -2.9% |
| USD / RUB | 76.925 | +0.9% | -0.7% | -3.2% |
| USD / SAR | 3.754 | +3.3% | +2.5% | +0.2% |
| USD / TRY | 46.977 | +0.1% | +0.5% | +9.4% |
| USD / ZAR | 16.347 | +0.2% | +0.5% | -1.4% |
US Treasury curve
| Maturity | Yield | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-Bill | 3.695% | +3bp | +15bp |
| US 5Y Note | 4.308% | +8bp | +59bp |
| US 10Y Note | 4.569% | +8bp | +41bp |
| US 30Y Bond | 5.071% | +9bp | +23bp |
Central banks this week
Federal Reserve. June FOMC minutes released, indicating some officials considered a rate hike and most favored removing the 'easing bias'.
Signals a hawkish stance among policymakers, challenging earlier market expectations for potential rate cuts and suggesting a readiness for further tightening if inflation remains sticky.
Reserves — who holds what, who is moving
Central banks globally continued their trend of gold accumulation, marking the 20th consecutive month of additions to official reserves. This ongoing buying by the official sector provides a long-term floor for gold and suggests a continued diversification trend away from traditional reserve assets like the US dollar. Among the top FX reserve holders, China maintains the largest position, followed by Japan and Switzerland. Movements in these large holdings signal shifts in global asset allocation strategies, though specific changes in dollar holdings were not detailed this week.
FX reserves — top 15 (excluding gold)
| Country | Reserves USD | As of |
|---|---|---|
| China | $3,264.8B | 2024 |
| Japan | $1,159.7B | 2024 |
| Switzerland | $822.1B | 2024 |
| India | $569.5B | 2024 |
| Euro area | $546.0B | 2024 |
| Saudi Arabia | $436.8B | 2024 |
| Russian Federation | $412.7B | 2024 |
| Korea, Rep. | $409.5B | 2024 |
| Singapore | $365.5B | 2024 |
| Brazil | $318.9B | 2024 |
| United Arab Emirates | $231.7B | 2024 |
| United States | $227.8B | 2024 |
| Mexico | $221.9B | 2024 |
| Thailand | $217.3B | 2024 |
| Israel | $214.5B | 2024 |
Fuel + pump prices
| Fuel | Benchmark / pump | Driver + passthrough |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol (Gasoline) | Delhi: ₹102.12/litre (July 11, 2026) | Prices in India remained steady since late May, influenced by global crude oil costs and the Rupee-Dollar exchange rate. |
| Diesel | Delhi: ₹95.20/litre (July 11, 2026) | Diesel prices in India have also held steady, with local taxes and global oil stability contributing to consistent pricing. |
| Petrol (Unleaded) | UK Average: 151.0p/litre (July 11, 2026) | UK petrol prices are updated daily, reflecting the wholesale price of crude oil, inflation, and the strength of the pound. |
| Diesel | UK Average: 164.7p/litre (July 11, 2026) | Like petrol, UK diesel prices are subject to daily changes driven by crude oil costs, refinery output, and the significant impact of fuel duty and VAT. |
| Gasoline (Regular) | NYC Average: $4.0780/gallon (July 10, 2026) | New York gasoline prices are influenced by crude oil prices and regional supply dynamics. |
| Diesel | NYC Average: $5.3910/gallon (July 10, 2026) | Diesel prices in NYC reflect state and federal taxes, along with underlying crude oil costs and market conditions. |
| LPG | New Delhi: ₹942.00/14.2 Kg cylinder (July 10, 2026) | LPG prices in India are revised monthly, determined by global market rates and the Rupee-Dollar exchange rate. |
What we’ll be watching this week
- July 14: US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI release
- July 14: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh congressional testimony before the House Financial Services Committee
- July 15: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh congressional testimony before the Senate Banking Committee
- July 15: Bank of Canada (BoC) interest rate decision
- July 23: European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision
- July 28: Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting
- July 30: Bank of England (BoE) monetary policy decision
Markets, FX, reserves: fmd-data (). Central bank moves + fuel benchmarks + calendar: grounded via Google Search at publish time.