Oil Prices Retreat as ECB Hikes, Fed and BoJ Loom with Rate Decisions
Crude oil saw notable declines this week, while major central banks including the Fed, BoJ, and BoE prepare for upcoming rate decisions.
The story
Brent and WTI crude prices retreated significantly this week, falling below $90 a barrel to levels last observed in early March. This decline was largely driven by growing hopes for a potential US-Iran agreement and the associated prospect of the Strait of Hormuz reopening, which previously had sent energy prices soaring due to supply disruption fears.
The European Central Bank (ECB) moved to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit rate to 2.25%. This marks the ECB's first rate hike since September 2023, with policymakers explicitly citing inflationary pressures stemming from the Middle East conflict as a key factor in their decision.
Next week, new US Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is set to preside over his inaugural Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Despite facing White House pressure to consider rate reductions, the committee is widely anticipated to hold rates steady, navigating high inflation and a divided policy outlook.
Energy and metals
WTI Crude and Brent Crude experienced notable declines over the week and month, with both benchmarks retreating. Natural gas prices, including TTF and Henry Hub, also moved lower for the week. Gold saw a significant weekly and monthly drop. In the foreign exchange markets, the US Dollar showed mixed movements, weakening against the South African Rand and Russian Ruble, while strengthening against the Saudi Riyal. US Treasury yields broadly eased, with the 5-year note yield seeing the largest weekly decline, and the 10-year note yield also moving lower.
| Instrument | Now | 24h | 7d | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 87.33 USD/bbl | -3.4% | -6.2% | -5.1% | +43.5% |
| WTI Crude | 84.88 USD/bbl | -3.2% | -6.3% | -2.8% | +47.8% |
| TTF Natural Gas | 46.77 EUR/MWh | -5.9% | -3.6% | +1.7% | +66.1% |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | 3.12 USD/MMBtu | +1.1% | -3.4% | -5.2% | -15.4% |
| Gold | 4,238.80 USD/oz | +3.6% | -2.3% | -7.1% | -2.0% |
Currencies vs the dollar
| Pair | Now | 24h | 7d | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CNY | 6.762 | -0.2% | -0.2% | -3.3% |
| USD / JPY | 160.185 | +0.0% | -0.1% | +2.4% |
| EUR / USD | 1.157 | -0.0% | -0.3% | -1.5% |
| USD / ARS | 1,428.500 | -0.3% | -0.6% | -1.6% |
| AUD / USD | 0.705 | +0.0% | +0.1% | +5.2% |
| USD / BRL | 5.063 | -1.0% | +0.0% | -7.5% |
| USD / CAD | 1.399 | +0.1% | +0.3% | +2.1% |
| GBP / USD | 1.341 | -0.0% | +0.5% | -0.4% |
| USD / IDR | 17,916.000 | -0.0% | -0.2% | +7.2% |
| USD / INR | 95.100 | -0.7% | -0.7% | +5.9% |
| USD / KRW | 1,517.890 | +0.0% | -1.0% | +5.6% |
| USD / MXN | 17.285 | +0.2% | +0.0% | -3.9% |
| USD / RUB | 72.425 | +0.6% | -1.3% | -8.9% |
| USD / SAR | 3.753 | +1.7% | +1.6% | +0.1% |
| USD / TRY | 46.257 | +0.0% | +0.4% | +7.7% |
| USD / ZAR | 16.276 | -0.0% | -1.7% | -1.9% |
US Treasury curve
| Maturity | Yield | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-Bill | 3.618% | -1bp | +7bp |
| US 5Y Note | 4.213% | -7bp | +49bp |
| US 10Y Note | 4.487% | -5bp | +32bp |
| US 30Y Bond | 4.975% | -2bp | +14bp |
Central banks this week
European Central Bank. Raised key interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%.
This was the first rate hike since September 2023, signaling the ECB's commitment to anchoring inflation amidst pressures from the Middle East conflict.
Federal Reserve. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its meeting next week, with new Chair Kevin Warsh presiding for the first time.
The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, but the focus will be on the new Chair's communication and any shifts in the committee's guidance regarding future policy direction, especially given persistent inflation and White House pressure for lower rates.
Bank of Japan. Scheduled for a Board meeting early next week.
The market anticipates a potential hike in the policy rate to 1%, marking a further step towards normalization, despite Governor Ueda's hospitalization.
Bank of England. The Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to meet next week.
The Bank of England is expected to maintain its Bank Rate at 3.75%, as policymakers balance inflationary impacts from the Iran conflict against a slowing UK economy.
Reserves — who holds what, who is moving
In the official sector, several nations continued to accumulate gold reserves. Poland was a significant buyer, adding a substantial amount of gold, followed by Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. China and India also increased their gold holdings. Conversely, Turkey emerged as the largest seller of gold, with Russia also drawing down its reserves. This pattern indicates a continued diversification trend among some central banks, while others adjusted their positions.
Gold reserves — top 15 holders (tonnes)
| Country | Tonnes | Δ last reading | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 8,133.0 | — | 2026-03 |
| Germany | 3,350.0 | — | 2025-12 |
| Italy | 2,452.0 | — | 2026-03 |
| France | 2,437.0 | — | 2025-12 |
| China | 2,313.0 | +7.00 | 2026-03 |
| Russia | 2,305.0 | -22.00 | 2026-03 |
| Switzerland | 1,040.0 | — | 2025-12 |
| India | 881.0 | +1.00 | 2026-03 |
| Japan | 846.0 | — | 2026-03 |
| Netherlands | 612.0 | — | 2025-12 |
| Poland | 582.0 | +32.00 | 2026-03 |
| Turkey | 535.0 | -79.00 | 2026-03 |
| Euro Area | 507.0 | — | 2025-09 |
| Taiwan | 424.0 | — | 2025-12 |
| Uzbekistan | 416.0 | +26.00 | 2026-03 |
Biggest buyers
| Country | Change | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Poland | +32.00 t | 582.0 |
| Uzbekistan | +26.00 t | 416.0 |
| Azerbaijan | +15.00 t | 200.0 |
| Kazakhstan | +13.00 t | 354.0 |
| China | +7.00 t | 2,313.0 |
| Iraq | +6.00 t | 171.0 |
| Czech Republic | +5.03 t | 76.6 |
Biggest sellers
| Country | Change | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Turkey | -79.00 t | 535.0 |
| Russia | -22.00 t | 2,305.0 |
| Ghana | -18.46 t | 18.6 |
| Bulgaria | -1.89 t | 41.0 |
| Bolivia | -0.03 t | 22.5 |
| Chile | -0.02 t | 0.2 |
| Pakistan | +0.03 t | 64.8 |
FX reserves — top 15 (excluding gold)
| Country | Reserves USD | As of |
|---|---|---|
| China | $3,264.8B | 2024 |
| Japan | $1,159.7B | 2024 |
| Switzerland | $822.1B | 2024 |
| India | $569.5B | 2024 |
| Euro area | $546.0B | 2024 |
| Saudi Arabia | $436.8B | 2024 |
| Russian Federation | $412.7B | 2024 |
| Korea, Rep. | $409.5B | 2024 |
| Singapore | $365.5B | 2024 |
| Brazil | $318.9B | 2024 |
| United Arab Emirates | $231.7B | 2024 |
| United States | $227.8B | 2024 |
| Mexico | $221.9B | 2024 |
| Thailand | $217.3B | 2024 |
| Israel | $214.5B | 2024 |
Fuel + pump prices
| Fuel | Benchmark / pump | Driver + passthrough |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol (Gasoline) | London: 157.95 pence per liter; New Delhi: ₹102.12 per litre | London prices moderated after a late May uptick, while New Delhi prices remained unchanged despite global crude oil volatility. |
| Diesel | London: 181.79 pence per liter; New Delhi: ₹95.20 per litre | London diesel prices continued to decline, marking a fifth consecutive weekly drop, while New Delhi prices held steady amid stable market conditions. |
| LPG | Mumbai: ₹941.50 for a 14.2 kg cylinder | Prices in Mumbai increased compared to the previous month. |
What we’ll be watching this week
- June 16: Bank of Japan interest rate decision
- June 16: Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision
- June 16: Germany ZEW investor survey
- June 17: US Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
- June 17: US Retail Sales
- June 17: Federal Reserve FOMC interest rate decision and economic projections
- June 17: UK CPI report
- June 18: Bank of England interest rate decision
- June 15-17: G7 heads of state summit in France
Markets, FX, reserves: fmd-data (). Central bank moves + fuel benchmarks + calendar: grounded via Google Search at publish time.