Gold Plunges, Dollar Surges as Robust US Jobs Data Fuels Fed Hike Expectations
Gold suffered its fourth weekly decline and the dollar strengthened after strong US jobs data; May CPI and central bank decisions loom next week.
The story
Expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes surged following Friday's significantly stronger-than-expected US non-farm payrolls data. This robust jobs report sent spot gold plunging, erasing nearly all its year-to-date gains and marking its fourth consecutive weekly decline. The US dollar index, bolstered by the data, rose sharply above the 100 level.
US Treasury yields climbed across the curve in response to the strong jobs figures, reinforcing market sentiment for further tightening from the Federal Reserve. The yield on the US 10-year note rose above 4.5%, while the 30-year yield topped 5%, reflecting concerns that elevated borrowing costs could impact economic growth and investment.
Oil markets saw volatility driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, with WTI Crude initially gaining due to concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. However, prices later eased amid signs of weaker global demand and stalled negotiations between Washington and Tehran, highlighting the ongoing influence of geopolitical risks on energy prices.
Energy and metals
Commodities experienced mixed movements, with WTI Crude and TTF Natural Gas advancing notably, while Gold registered a significant decline. Brent Crude also moved higher, contrasting with a slight dip in Henry Hub Natural Gas. In currency markets, the Korean won, Russian ruble, Brazilian real, and South African rand all weakened against the US dollar. Conversely, the Australian dollar saw a retreat. Across the Treasury curve, US 5-year and 10-year notes saw yields rise, indicating a shift in interest rate expectations, while 3-month T-bills also moved higher.
| Instrument | Now | 24h | 7d | MTD | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Crude | 95.57 USD/bbl | +2.7% | +3.8% | +3.8% | +57.1% |
| WTI Crude | 92.74 USD/bbl | +2.4% | +6.2% | +6.2% | +61.5% |
| TTF Natural Gas | 48.50 EUR/MWh | -0.5% | +5.4% | +5.4% | +72.2% |
| Henry Hub Natural Gas | 3.19 USD/MMBtu | -1.3% | -3.1% | -3.1% | -13.5% |
| Gold | 4,346.80 USD/oz | +0.2% | -4.7% | -4.7% | +0.5% |
Currencies vs the dollar
| Pair | Now | 24h | 7d | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD / CNY | 6.765 | -0.1% | -0.0% | -3.3% |
| USD / JPY | 160.324 | +0.2% | +0.6% | +2.5% |
| EUR / USD | 1.152 | -0.8% | -1.1% | -2.0% |
| USD / ARS | 1,440.500 | +0.2% | +1.9% | -0.8% |
| AUD / USD | 0.704 | -1.4% | -2.0% | +5.0% |
| USD / BRL | 5.151 | +1.8% | +2.2% | -5.9% |
| USD / CAD | 1.395 | +0.3% | +1.1% | +1.9% |
| GBP / USD | 1.333 | -0.8% | -0.9% | -1.1% |
| USD / IDR | 18,035.000 | +0.4% | +1.2% | +7.9% |
| USD / INR | 94.935 | -0.9% | -0.1% | +5.8% |
| USD / KRW | 1,559.430 | +1.7% | +3.5% | +8.5% |
| USD / MXN | 17.482 | +1.2% | +0.8% | -2.8% |
| USD / RUB | 73.640 | +0.3% | +3.4% | -7.4% |
| USD / SAR | 3.755 | +1.7% | +0.7% | +0.2% |
| USD / TRY | 46.084 | +0.0% | +0.4% | +7.3% |
| USD / ZAR | 16.577 | +1.7% | +2.1% | -0.1% |
US Treasury curve
| Maturity | Yield | Week | YTD |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 3M T-Bill | 3.625% | +4bp | +8bp |
| US 5Y Note | 4.280% | +13bp | +56bp |
| US 10Y Note | 4.536% | +8bp | +37bp |
| US 30Y Bond | 4.999% | +1bp | +16bp |
Central banks this week
Federal Reserve. Expectations for rate hikes surged after stronger-than-expected US jobs data. The Fed maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, noting elevated inflation partly due to global energy prices and uncertainty from Middle East developments.
Markets are now pricing in a higher probability of further tightening by the Fed, with a 98% chance of a 25 basis-point increase by December.
European Central Bank. Widely expected to raise its key interest rate by 25 basis points at its upcoming Thursday meeting.
This move is anticipated to anchor inflation expectations in the Eurozone, which has seen rising oil-driven price pressures linked to the Middle East conflict, bringing the deposit facility rate to 2.25%.
Bank of Canada. Expected to hold its policy rate at 2.25% at its Wednesday meeting.
Despite Canada being in a technical recession, the central bank is assessing the inflationary impact from the Middle East conflict and maintaining a cautious stance on rates.
Bank of Japan. Expected to maintain its policy rate at 0.75%.
The focus remains on the language from the central bank for any signals regarding future policy adjustments amid global energy shocks.
Reserves — who holds what, who is moving
Official sector reserve movements showed a continued trend of gold accumulation by several nations. Poland significantly increased its gold holdings, as did Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. China and India also added to their gold reserves. Conversely, Turkey and Russia were notable sellers of gold. This pattern of gold buying by various central banks signals a continued diversification away from traditional dollar-denominated assets, a trend that saw gold surpass US Treasuries as the world's top central bank reserve asset at year-end 2025, according to a recent European Central Bank report.
Gold reserves — top 15 holders (tonnes)
| Country | Tonnes | Δ last reading | Ref |
|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 8,133.0 | — | 2026-03 |
| Germany | 3,350.0 | — | 2025-12 |
| Italy | 2,452.0 | — | 2026-03 |
| France | 2,437.0 | — | 2025-12 |
| China | 2,313.0 | +7.00 | 2026-03 |
| Russia | 2,305.0 | -22.00 | 2026-03 |
| Switzerland | 1,040.0 | — | 2025-12 |
| India | 881.0 | +1.00 | 2026-03 |
| Japan | 846.0 | — | 2026-03 |
| Netherlands | 612.0 | — | 2025-12 |
| Poland | 582.0 | +32.00 | 2026-03 |
| Turkey | 535.0 | -79.00 | 2026-03 |
| Euro Area | 507.0 | — | 2025-09 |
| Taiwan | 424.0 | — | 2025-12 |
| Uzbekistan | 416.0 | +26.00 | 2026-03 |
Biggest buyers
| Country | Change | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Poland | +32.00 t | 582.0 |
| Uzbekistan | +26.00 t | 416.0 |
| Azerbaijan | +15.00 t | 200.0 |
| Kazakhstan | +13.00 t | 354.0 |
| China | +7.00 t | 2,313.0 |
| Iraq | +6.00 t | 171.0 |
| Czech Republic | +5.03 t | 76.6 |
Biggest sellers
| Country | Change | Now |
|---|---|---|
| Turkey | -79.00 t | 535.0 |
| Russia | -22.00 t | 2,305.0 |
| Ghana | -18.46 t | 18.6 |
| Bulgaria | -1.89 t | 41.0 |
| Bolivia | -0.03 t | 22.5 |
| Chile | -0.02 t | 0.2 |
| Pakistan | +0.03 t | 64.8 |
FX reserves — top 15 (excluding gold)
| Country | Reserves USD | As of |
|---|---|---|
| China | $3,264.8B | 2024 |
| Japan | $1,159.7B | 2024 |
| Switzerland | $822.1B | 2024 |
| India | $569.5B | 2024 |
| Euro area | $546.0B | 2024 |
| Saudi Arabia | $436.8B | 2024 |
| Russian Federation | $412.7B | 2024 |
| Korea, Rep. | $409.5B | 2024 |
| Singapore | $365.5B | 2024 |
| Brazil | $318.9B | 2024 |
| United Arab Emirates | $231.7B | 2024 |
| United States | $227.8B | 2024 |
| Mexico | $221.9B | 2024 |
| Thailand | $217.3B | 2024 |
| Israel | $214.5B | 2024 |
Fuel + pump prices
| Fuel | Benchmark / pump | Driver + passthrough |
|---|---|---|
| Petrol (Gasoline) | London, UK: 158.70 pence per liter; Mumbai, India: ₹111.21 per liter; New York, US: $4.4590 per gallon | Retail petrol prices in London and New York saw minor fluctuations, while Mumbai's price remained stable this week. |
| Diesel | London, UK: 182.26 pence per liter; Mumbai, India: ₹97.83 per liter; New York, US: $5.8190 per gallon | Diesel prices held steady in Mumbai and London, while New York experienced slight shifts. |
| LPG | Delhi, India: ₹942 per 14.2-kg cylinder; Mumbai, India: ₹941.50 per 14.2-kg cylinder | Domestic LPG prices in India increased by ₹29 per cylinder, effective June 7, driven by higher international energy costs. |
| Jet Fuel | Global Average: $141.64 per barrel | Global average jet fuel prices fell last week, though sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) prices surged in May due to supply stagnation and the Middle East conflict. |
What we’ll be watching this week
- June 8 (Monday): US May NY Fed One-Year Inflation Expectation
- June 9 (Tuesday): Germany's April Industrial Production and Trade Balance
- June 10 (Wednesday): US May CPI data release
- June 10 (Wednesday): Bank of Canada interest rate decision
- June 11 (Thursday): European Central Bank interest rate decision
- June 11 (Thursday): US initial jobless claims and May PPI data release
- June 12 (Friday): Germany's final May CPI
- June 12 (Friday): US preliminary June one-year inflation expectation and University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment index
- June 12 (Friday): Potential SpaceX Initial Public Offering (IPO)
Markets, FX, reserves: fmd-data (). Central bank moves + fuel benchmarks + calendar: grounded via Google Search at publish time.