Indian Benchmarks Rebound Strongly as Sensex Gains Over 700 Points, Crude Oil Prices Tumble
The rally follows an easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a sharp decline in crude oil prices, with investors now watching upcoming macro data and the US Fed meeting.
The story
Indian equity benchmarks staged a significant comeback on Monday, July 27, snapping a five-session losing streak. The Sensex surged over 700 points, while the Nifty 50 climbed above the 23,900 mark, with broad-based buying across sectors.
This rebound was primarily driven by a notable de-escalation of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, as the US and Iran signaled a pause in military strikes over the weekend. Consequently, Brent crude oil prices tumbled by 4-5%, falling to around $87-$92 a barrel, which is a positive for oil-importing economies like India.
The rupee also strengthened, gaining 28 paise against the US dollar to trade at 96.25 in early trade. On the institutional front, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) remained net sellers on July 24, offloading equities worth Rs 3,892.77 crore.
However, Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) provided strong countervailing support, buying shares worth Rs 5,453.55 crore on the same day. Technology stocks led the market's advance, with the Nifty IT index rising over 2%, as Infosys, Tech Mahindra, HCLTech, and TCS saw gains.
The tape
| Instrument | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 23,976.70 | +209.25 (+0.88%) |
| Sensex | 76,791.61 | +732 (+0.96%) |
| Bank Nifty | 57,026.80 | +333.30 (+0.59%) |
| USD/INR | 96.25 | -0.28 |
| India 10Y yield | 6.773% | -0.78% |
| India VIX | 13.55 | -3.40% |
Flows & data
FII Net Flows (Cash)
Reading: -₹3,892.77 crore (July 24, 2026)
Read: Foreign investors were net sellers, continuing a trend of inconsistent flows this month.
DII Net Flows (Cash)
Reading: +₹5,453.55 crore (July 24, 2026)
Read: Domestic institutions provided strong buying support, cushioning the impact of foreign selling.
IPOs & the primary market
The primary market saw several activities today, July 27. The subscription period for mainboard IPOs like Indo-MIM, Xtranet Technologies, and Lohia Corp concluded, with Indo-MIM having been subscribed 3.07 times by Friday.
Indo-MIM's Grey Market Premium (GMP) was reported at +41.20% (₹200) today, indicating an expected listing price of around ₹685 against its upper price band of ₹485. SME IPOs, Advance Technoforge and Propshop Events & Exhibitions, opened for subscription today.
Meanwhile, Gulf Lloyds (India) made its market debut today, listing on the BSE SME at its offer price of ₹100. Allotment for Cube Highways Trust InvIT and Shree Balaji (Mala) Textiles IPOs is also expected today.
Valuation watch — India & global
Despite the recent rally, the Nifty is currently trading at a one-year forward Price-to-Earnings (PE) multiple of 17.3 times, which represents an 11.7% discount to its 15-year average. PL Capital recently raised its one-year Nifty target to 27,019, valuing the index at a 10% discount to its average 15-year P/E for FY28 earnings, suggesting that current valuations remain reasonable.
Globally, the rise in the US 10-year bond yield, which was around 4.633% today, is generally seen as a negative factor for equities. Analysts also note that a correction in chip stocks and ongoing concerns surrounding the AI trade could potentially redirect Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) enthusiasm towards Indian equities.
Monsoon watch
The southwest monsoon covered the entire country on July 9, slightly later than its normal date. However, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecasted 'below-normal' rainfall for July, expecting less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
This outlook is attributed to evolving El Nino conditions. This follows a particularly dry June, which saw rainfall 39.9% below the benchmark, making it one of the driest in over a century. The forecast has intensified concerns for farmers, as July is a critical month for kharif sowing and early crop establishment, with sowing already down 23% year-on-year by early July.
What we'll be watching
- US Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, July 29.
- US Fed Chair's press conference on Thursday, July 30.
- India's Industrial Production (IIP) data for June, expected on July 28.
- India's Manufacturing Production data for June, expected on July 28.
- India's Government Budget Balance for June, expected on July 31.
- Ongoing Q1 FY27 corporate earnings season.
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